摘 要

如今P2P网贷平台的数量剧增，整个行业正处于高速发展的态势。但与此同时，整个行业也是良莠不齐，泥沙俱下，平台的财务风险也越加突显。因此，需要全面系统地学习与掌握P2P网贷平台的财务风险，将中国国内P2P网贷平台的财务风险重要性程度进行划分，以此让平台经营者按风险重要程度对财务风险进行关注，也为平台风险管理工作提出了合理建议，有利于整个P2P网贷行业的规范发展。

为了研究财务风险对P2P网贷平台的影响，本文对传统财务风险与P2P网贷平台的基本概念进行介绍，并将P2P网贷平台的财务风险划分为几个不同的层次。先通过对2016年1月到2017年2月50家P2P平台的数据进行分析，把所有预警指标进行因子分析，得到重要的影响因子，然后以平台得分作为财务风险程度的判断标准，将平台的财务风险状况分为风险和稳健两种。运用BP神经网络的方法构建P2P网贷平台财务风险预警模型，最后根据分析结果为P2P网贷平台的财务风险预防提供参考。

关键词：P2P网贷平台；财务风险预警；因子分析；BP神经网络

Abstract

Nowadays, with the number of P2P network loan platform surging, the whole industry has a trend of developing rapidly. However, at the same time, it is also the good and bad intermingled, which results the financial risk of the platform more prominent. Therefore, having a comprehensive and systematical study of the P2P network loan platform financial risk to have a good commond of it is highly needed. And then it is able to divide the financial risk according to the importance degree of the P2P network loan platform so as to make the platform operators pay attention to the financial risk, and meanwhile, provide some reasonable proposals to manage the platform risk for benefiting the normative development of the entire P2P network loan industry.

In order to study the influence of financial risk on P2P network loan platform, this paper introduces the basic conceptions of the traditional financial risk and P2P network loan platform, then divides the financial risk of the platform into several degrees. This thesis firstly analyzes data of the 50 P2P platforms from Jan, 2016 to Feb, 2017 by using factor analysis method to analyze all the warning indicators to get vital impact factors. Secondly, taking score of the platform as the criterion to judge the degrees of financial risks and dividing the financial risks into risk type and steady type. Then, using the method of BP neural network method to construct the forewarning model of the financial risk of P2P network loan platform and finally providing some references to the forewarning of it on the basis of the analysis results.

Key Words：P2P network loan platform; Financial risk warning; Factor analysis; BP neural network

目 录

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景和意义 1

1.2 文献综述 2

1.3 研究方法与结构安排 3

第二章 财务风险与P2P网贷平台的概述 5

2.1 财务风险 5

2.2 P2P网贷平台 6

2.3 基于LAPP法的P2P网贷平台财务风险划分 7

第三章 P2P网贷平台财务风险的预警与防范 11

3.1 财务风险预警指标的选取 11

3.2 P2P网贷平台财务风险的评估 13

3.3 P2P网贷平台财务风险预警模型的构建 16

3.4 P2P平台财务风险防范建议 19

第四章 结论与展望 21

4.1 结论 21

4.2 展望 21

参考文献 23

致谢 24

附录 25

第一章 绪论

1.1 研究背景和意义

1.1.1 研究背景

2005年，在英国首次提出了P2P网贷服务概念。自此，P2P网贷平台模式因其便捷的操作、高效的服务以及个性化的利率确定机制，迅速得到市场的认可。目前国外较为著名的P2P网贷平台有英国的Zopa、美国的Prosper和Lending Club等。

2007年，P2P网贷模式进入中国，我国首家P2P网贷平台——拍拍贷在上海成立。我国经济的快速发展，互联网金融的崛起，为我国网贷服务的发展提供了巨大机遇，诸多网贷平台相继成立。据测算，截止2013年年底，全国约有800家左右平台，到2016年，P2P平台更是暴涨至3300多家。但是至2017年2月后，近千家不规范的网贷平台被行业洗牌淘汰，网贷平台的财务风险被严重地暴露出来。