论文总字数：20427字

摘 要

近年来，中美之间的贸易摩擦不断激化，美国对我国实施了多次关税制裁，打破了原本双方互利共赢的局面，中美贸易争端对我国国际收支产生的影响是值得关注的。本文采取文献研究法对我国国际收支情况进行梳理，采取比较分析法来研究相关问题：首先，比较中美贸易摩擦产生前后的双边贸易情况，分析得出美国发动贸易战的真实目的是遏制我国产业的转型升级，打压我国制造，迫使我国开放市场并放弃其经济利益。其次，比较贸易摩擦前后中美双边贸易结构、贸易差额是否发生明显改变，分析得出美国在此次贸易战中的收益较小，并且贸易战对我国国际收支产生的影响可控。最后比较中美贸易摩擦和美日贸易摩擦的相似点与不同点，从日本的遭遇中吸取经验教训，结合我国自身的国情为我国国际收支平衡提出一些建议，如加快产业转型、推动一带一路高质量发展、坚持人民币国际化等。并预测我国国际收支未来的发展趋势，若我国不能很好消除贸易摩擦产生的影响，很有可能会陷入双逆差的困境。

关键词：贸易摩擦 国际收支 服务贸易 货物贸易

Study on the Impact of Sino-us Trade Friction on China's International balance of payments

Abstract

In recent years, the trade friction between China and the US has become more and more serious.The United States has imposed multiple tariff sanctions on China, breaking the situation of mutual benefit and win-win. The impact of Sino-US trade disputes on China's balance of payments is worthy of attention. This article uses the literature research method to sort out China's international balance of payments, and adopts a comparative analysis method to study related issues:First, it compares the bilateral trade situation before and after the trade friction between China and the United States, and analyzes the deep goal of the US in launching a trade war to curb Chinese industries. The transformation and upgrading, suppressing Made in China, forcing China to open its market and abandon its economic interests. Second, compare whether the Sino-U.S. Bilateral trade structure and trade balance have changed significantly before and after the trade friction. The analysis shows that the United States has a small gain in this trade war, and the impact of the trade war on China's balance of payments is controllable. Finally, compare the similarities and differences between the Sino-U.S. Trade friction and the U.S.-Japan trade friction, learn from Japanese experience, and come up with some suggestions for China's international balance of payments based on China's own national conditions,such as accelerating industrial transformation, promoting high-quality development of the Belt and Road, and adhering to RMB internationalization, etc. This article also predicts the future development trend of China's balance of payments. If China does not well eliminate the impact of trade friction, it is likely to fall into the dilemma of double deficits.

Key words: Trade friction; The balance of payments; Service trade; Commodity trade

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 引言 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究的主题与意义 1

1.2.1 研究主题 1

1.2.2 研究意义 1

1.3 研究思路及研究方法 1

1.3.1 研究思路 1

1.3.2 研究方法 2

1.4 论文的创新与不足 2

1.4.1论文的创新 2

1.4.2论文的不足 2

第二章 文献综述 3

2.1对中美贸易摩擦的研究 3

2.2对我国国际收支的研究 3

2.3总结与评论 4

第三章 中美贸易摩擦对我国国际收支的影响分析 5

3.1我国国际收支概述 5

3.1.1我国国际收支格局的演变 5

3.1.2我国国际收支失衡原因分析 6

3.2中美贸易摩擦概述 8

3.2.1中美贸易摩擦的具体表现 8

3.2.2中美产生贸易摩擦的原因 10

3.3中美贸易摩擦以来的我国国际收支 14

第四章 我国应对贸易摩擦的策略与措施 17

4.1美日贸易摩擦回顾 17

4.1.1美日贸易摩擦概述 17

4.1.2对美日贸易摩擦的分析与思考 18

4.2我国可采取的应对措施 19

4.3我国国际收支未来趋势分析 20

第五章 总结与展望 23

5.1本文总结 23

5.2研究展望 23

参考文献 24

致谢 26

第一章 引言

1.1 研究背景

当今世界各国的贸易关系越来越紧密，各国的对外贸易活动也日渐频繁，与此同时国际收支问题也层出不穷。

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