摘 要

在我国，互联网金融依靠国家“互联网＋”战略，凭借其广泛性、高效性、普惠性等天然的优势，正在潜移默化的影响着传统金融业，并与传统金融相互渗透、彼此竞争，冲击着原有的金融结构，成为了一把锋利的“双刃剑”。其作为一个复杂的混合系统，一方面具有互联网所无法规避的系统性风险；另一方面，又沾染了金融业的市场风险色彩，加之我国互联网金融风险又具有长期性、隐蔽性、传导性等特点，导致相关法律法规仍不完善、监管缺位现象长期存在。以上风险成为我国互联网金融发展过程中的不稳定因素和阻碍因素。因此，我们应当关注我国互联网金融市场运行中的各类风险，通过对各类业务现状的分析，找出具体风险，以此建立实证评价模型，定性和定量相结合的分析我国互联网金融各风险指标之间的具体关系，提出具有针对性的风险防范建议，对促进我国经济平稳运行和经济转型具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。

本文的主要内容为：首先对互联网金融风险评价的相关概念和理论基础进行分析，依据这些理论对我国互联网金融产品和业务采用最大口径来划分，进而分析每一类业务的风险并归纳出我国互联网金融行业所面临的几种程度较高的风险。通过上述步骤，构建一个较为简单、初级的风险评价指标体系。运用德尔菲法进一步确立所建立的指标体系；通过问卷调查收集数据并使用SPSS25.0对其展开多角度的描述性统计分析并通过信度和效度分析检验所收集的问卷数据对应指标是否合格，在剔除部分不适指标后确立最终的中国互联网金融风险评价指标体系。其次，建立结构方程模型，借助AMOS22.0分析各指标之间的关系，利用拟合指数对模型进行修正，获得更为合理的模型以获得实证结果。最后，根据实证结果针对性的提出相关建议，推动我国互联网金融和整个国民经济的平稳健康发展。

本文的主要贡献与创新在于：在对我国互联网金融进行划分并分析各自风险的基础上提炼出六大风险类别，构建了我国互联网金融风险评价指标体系。通过结构方程模型对我国互联网金融风险中一级指标之间的因果关系、一二级指标之间的相关关系进行分析并修正模型，得出我国互联网金融中最直接的五个风险源，提出了针对性的风险防控建议，为加强对我国互联网金融的监督与促进其平稳健康发展提供了创新思路。

关键词：互联网金融；结构方程模型；风险评价

Abstract

In China, relying on the country’s “Internet ” strategy, Internet finance relies on its natural advantages of convenience, efficiency, and inclusiveness to subconsciously influence the traditional financial industry, and penetrates and competes with traditional finances. The original financial structure became a sharp "double-edged sword." As a complex hybrid system, on the one hand, it has systemic risks that the Internet has not circumvented; on the other hand, it is also contaminated by the market risk color of the financial industry, and it also has long-term, hidden, conductive, etc. Characteristics, resulting in relevant laws and regulations are still not perfect, lack of supervision for a long time. The above risks have become destabilizing and hindering factors in the development of China's Internet finance. Therefore, we should pay attention to all kinds of risks in the operation of China's Internet financial market, identify specific risks through the analysis of its current status, and establish an empirical evaluation model, which combines qualitative and quantitative analysis of China's Internet finance risk indicators. The specific relationship between the proposed risk prevention recommendations. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote China's economic transformation and smooth operation.

The main content of this article is as follows: First of all, it analyzes the related concepts and theoretical basis of Internet finance and Internet financial risks, and uses these theories to divide China's Internet financial products and businesses into the largest caliber, and then analyzes the risks of each type of business and the overall risks. After summarizing the above risks, a preliminary risk assessment index system was formed. Delphi method was used to further establish the established index system; data were collected through questionnaire survey and descriptive statistical analysis, reliability analysis, and validity analysis were performed using SPSS 25.0, and some indexes were eliminated to establish the final evaluation index system. Secondly, we have established the equation model, the indicators’ relationship was analyzed with AMOS 22.0, and harmony can be used to modify the model, a more reasonable model, the empirical results also can be obtained. Finally, in the light of the empirical results, the relevant recommendations are targeted to make a healthy development China's Internet economy and the entire national economy come true.

The main contributions and innovations of this paper are: on the basis of dividing China's Internet finance and analyzing their respective risks, six major risk categories are extracted, and an index system of China's Internet financial risk evaluation is constructed. Through the structural equation model, we measure and correlate the causality between the first-level indicators of China's Internet financial risks and the correlation between the first- and second-level indicators, and correct the model to obtain the five most direct sources of risk in China's Internet finance. Targeted risk prevention and control suggestions provide innovative ideas for the supervision of China's Internet finance and promoting its steady and healthy development.

Keywords: internet finance; structural equation model; risk assessment

目 录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究目的及意义 2

1.2.1 研究目的 2

1.2.2 研究意义 2

1.3 国内外相关研究现状 3

1.3.1 国外研究现状 3

1.3.2 国内研究现状 3

1.3.3 国内外研究评述 4

1.4研究内容和方法 5

1.4.1 研究内容 5

1.4.2 研究方法 5

1.4.3 技术路线 6

第2章 基本概念与理论基础 7

2.1 基本概念 7

2.1.1 互联网金融 7

2.1.2 互联网金融风险 9

2.1.3 互联网金融风险评价 9

2.2 理论基础 9

2.2.1 结构方程模型的基本原理 9

2.2.2 结构方程模型的优点 10

2.2.3 结构方程模型建模的基本步骤 11

第3章 我国互联网金融发展现状及风险类别 13

3.1 我国互联网金融的发展现状 13

3.1.1 金融互联网化 13

3.1.2 第三方支付 15

3.1.3 P2P网络贷款 19

3.1.4 众筹融资 21

3.1.5 基于大数据的征信和网络贷款 23

3.1.6 互联网货币 24

3.2 我国互联网金融的风险表现 25

3.2.1 金融互联网化的风险表现 25

3.2.2 移动支付与第三方支付的风险表现 25

3.2.3 P2P网络贷款的风险表现 26

3.2.4 众筹融资的风险表现 27

3.2.5 基于大数据的征信和网络贷款的风险表现 27

3.2.6 互联网货币的风险表现 28

3.3 我国互联网金融的风险类别 28

3.3.1 助推系统性风险 28

3.3.2 平台运行风险 28

3.3.3 互联网信用风险 29

3.3.4 网络安全风险 29

3.3.5 法律缺失风险 29

3.3.6 互联网声誉风险 29

第4章 我国互联网金融风险评价指标体系构建 30

4.1 评价指标体系构建原则 30

4.1.1 系统性原则 30

4.1.2 定量定性相结合原则 30

4.1.3 可操作性原则 30

4.2 评价指标体系选择 30

4.3 数据来源与分析 32

4.3.1 数据来源 32

4.3.2 数据分析 33

第5章 我国互联网金融风险实证分析 38

5.1 我国互联网金融风险结构方程模型变量选择 38

5.2 我国互联网金融风险结构方程理论模型 39