摘 要

企业财务风险的评价与控制是财务领域中的重要研究课题。随着市场经济的深入进行，各行各业百花齐放，市场竞争不断升温的大背景下，我国房地产企业在不断的深化改革与发展所面临的财务风险愈加复杂。作为国民经济的支柱产业之一，我国经济增长的重要引擎，房地产企业如果在商战中如果不能合理、有效、及时地应对财务风险掀起的狂澜，不仅会引发财务危机，也会降低我国经济发展的增速。因此，无论是对财务风险的事前预测，还是对财务风险的合理评价、妥善管理和有效控制，都是社会各界共同关注的热点和一致渴望达成的目标。

本文的研究目的在于通过对房地产企业财务风险成因的提炼和分析、对财务风险的定性识别与定量度量，构建科学的财务风险评价体系，将其运用于对房地产行业上市公司的量化评价中，以此为据对财务风险进行合理评价，初步了解财务风险的态势；再针对成因提出行之有效的控制策略，规避或分散风险，使企业避免损失，实现房地产企业价值最大化的目标，为国家经济增长持续输出动力。

基于上述背景，本将进行如下研究：

第一部分，绪论：概述研究的目的及意义、国内外的研究现状以及研究的内容和方法。

第二部分，介绍财务风险的概念范畴及其理论研究历程：作为一种可度量的不确定性，可将其量化为实际报酬与期望报酬偏离程度的大小，为后文对其度量和分析的工作奠定理论基础。

第三部分，根据指标体系设计原则，结合房地产行业的实情和财务风险的特征确立财务风险评价指标，构建房地产行业财务风险评价指标体系。

第四部分，择取108家房地产上市企业，重点利用SPSS软件包进行实证分析。具体是运用因子分析法计算企业财务状况的综合得分，根据不同主成分因子的得分解析财务风险的成因，并进行多角度的全面剖析，在此基础上进行财务风险评价。

第五部分，结合第四部分实证分析的结果总结归纳房地产企业财务风险的共性，有针对性地提出房地产行业的财务风险控制策略及措施。

第六部分，结论：总结以上内容，综述研究结论并展望未来的研究前景。

关键词：房地产企业；财务风险；评价与控制

Abstract

The evaluation and control of corporate financial risk is an important research topic in the financial field. With the deepening of the market economy, the fact that all walks of life are flourishing, and market competition is heating up, the financial risks faced by China's real estate companies in continuously deepening reform and development are increasingly complex. As one of the pillar industries of the national economy, China’s economic growth is an important engine. If real estate companies cannot reasonably, effectively, and timely respond to the turbulent financial risks in their business operations, they will not only trigger a financial crisis but also reduce the economic development of China. Growth rate. Therefore, whether it is the prediction of financial risks, or the reasonable evaluation of financial risks, proper management, and effective control, it is a hot spot that all sectors of the community pay close attention to and a goal that they are eager to achieve.

The purpose of this paper is to construct a scientific financial risk assessment system through the refinement and analysis of the causes of financial risks in real estate companies, qualitative identification and quantitative measurement of financial risks, and apply them to the quantitative evaluation of listed companies in the real estate industry. This is based on a reasonable assessment of financial risks and a preliminary understanding of the financial risk situation. It also proposes effective control strategies for the causes, avoids or spreads risks, enables enterprises to avoid losses, and realizes the goal of maximizing the value of real estate companies, and is a national economy. Growth continues to output power.

Based on the above background, this study will be conducted as follows:

The first part, Introduction: Summarizes the purpose and significance of the research, the research status at home and abroad, and the content and methods of research.

The second part introduces the concept category of financial risk and its theoretical research history: As a kind of measurable uncertainty, it can be quantified as the degree of deviation between actual reward and expected reward, which will be measured and analyzed later. Work lays a theoretical foundation.

In the third part, according to the index system design principles, combining the facts of the real estate industry and the characteristics of financial risks, establish the financial risk evaluation index, and construct the real estate industry financial risk evaluation index system.

In the fourth part, we selected 108 real estate listed companies and focused on using the SPSS software package for empirical analysis. Specifically, it uses the factor analysis method to calculate the comprehensive score of the company's financial status, analyzes the causes of financial risks according to the scores of different principal component factors, and conducts a comprehensive analysis from multiple perspectives. Based on this, it conducts financial risk assessment.

In the fifth part, combining the results of the empirical analysis in the fourth part, we sum up the commonality of real estate companies' financial risks, and propose targeted financial risk control strategies and measures for the real estate industry.

Part VI, conclusions: Summarizing the above, summarizing the research findings and looking into the future research prospects.

Key Words：Real Estate Company；Financial Risk； Evaluation and Control

目录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1研究的目的和意义 1

1.1.1研究目的 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状综述 2

1.2.1国外研究现状 2

1.2.2国内研究现状 3

1.3研究的内容和方法 4

1.3.1研究内容 4

1.3.2研究方法 4

第2章 房地产行业上市公司财务风险评价与控制理论基础 6

2.1 房地产行业上市公司财务风险的概念和类型 6

2.1.1概念的界定 6

2.1.2 财务风险的类型 6

2.2 财务风险评价与控制的相关理论 7

2.2.1效用理论 7

2.2.2委托代理理论 7

2.2.3现代资本结构理论 7

2.2.4投资组合理论 8

2.2.5控制论 8

2.3财务风险评价与控制的方法 8

2.3.1财务风险评价方法 8

2.3.2财务风险控制方法 9

第3章 房地产行业上市公司财务风险评价指标体系构建 10

3.1 房地产行业上市公司的现状 10

3.1.1 房地产行业概况 10

3.1.2 房地产行业特征 10

3.1.3 房地产行业财务风险的特征 11

3.2 财务风险评价指标体系构建 12

3.2.1 财务风险评价指标体系设计原则 12

3.2.2 财务风险评价指标的确立 14

第4章 房地产行业上市公司财务风险评价 16

4.1 样本选取及数据来源 16

4.1.1样本选取标准 16

4.1.2样本选取 16

4.2基于因子分析法的房地产上市公司财务风险评价 16

4.2.1 因子分析法的适用性检验与因子变量的确定 16

4.2.2 确定因子得分与综合得分公式 19

4.3 房地产行业上市公司财务风险评价结果分析 21

4.3.1房地产上市公司财务状况排名 21

4.3.2 房地产上市公司财务风险成因分析 24

第5章 房地产行业上市公司财务风险的控制 26

5.1 房地产行业上市公司资金筹集风险控制 26

5.1.1优化资本结构 26

5.1.2降低综合资本成本 26

5.1.3完善资金预算体系 26

5.2 房地产行业上市公司资金投入风险控制 26

5.2.1建立财务风险预警系统 26