摘 要

本文基于全球老龄化程度不断加深、对社会养老造成较大压力的背景，研究我国养老保险制度“三支柱”模式的改革方向。文章采用定量分析方法，分析我国老龄化程度和养老保险存量规模；总结我国与发达国家养老保险制度的改革历程和法律体系差异，对比研究发达国家在老龄化背景下进行不同福利类型养老保障体系改革的经验；利用实证分析工具（固定效应模型）研究老龄化对我国基本养老金收支影响；通过查阅文献等方法研究我国如何通过养老保险的各项参数（如缴费率、替代率等）调节以减轻社会养老压力。本文深耕我国养老保险多层次模式的改革路径，总结目前“三支柱”模式运行过程中的结构缺陷，创新性地提出在养老保险制度上实行责任分担、加强投资养老观念教育、注重调节各参数的改革建议。

关键词： 老龄化；养老保险制度；社会保障

Abstract

Aging population, which has an accelerating tendency, has been a global problem for years. It brings tremendous and growing pressure to the social pension system. Based on this situation, the reform direction of three pillars model of China's pension system in our country is discussed in this essay. Quantitative analysis is one of the main tools used in the article, aiming to perform a rational analysis of the degree of aging and the size of endowment insurance stock in our country. By comparing with the reform process of endowment insurance system and the difference of corresponding legal system between developed countries and China, experience about how developed countries conduct proper endowment insurance system reform according to various types of welfare can be summarized. Meanwhile, an empirical analysis (FEM) is adopted in order to figure out the impact that aging problem makes to the income and expenses condition of basic pension. By referencing to relevant research literature, the paper shows a basic understanding of how the adjustment of various parameters (such as payment rate, replacement rate, etc.) in our country’s endowment insurance system reduce the pressure of social aging problems. This article discusses the reform path of the multi-level model of China's endowment insurance in details and draws a conclusion about the structural defects occurred during the operation of the current three pillar model. Furthermore, several innovative suggestions about the responsibility sharing in the endowment insurance system, strengthening the education of the concept of investment in endowment insurance, and focusing on the adjustment of various parameters are put forward on the basis of researches that have previously been done in this article.

Key words: Aging; endowment insurance system; social security

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

第1章 绪论 1

1.选题背景及研究意义 1

1.1.1选题背景 1

1.1.2国内外研究现状与研究意义 1

1.2 研究内容和基本思路 2

1.2.1研究内容 2

1.2.2基本思路 2

第2章 我国养老金发展现状 4

2.1我国养老金规模及人口老龄化背景 4

2.1.1人口老龄化现状分析 4

2.1.2我国养老保险规模、养老金支出现状分析 6

2.2国内养老保险政策发展及影响因素 10

2.2.1养老保险的“三支柱”模式 10

2.2.2养老保险缴费率政策效应 13

第3章 国际养老保险制度 15

3.1国际养老金制度分析 15

3.1.1全球人口老龄化背景下有关国际养老金制度种类研究 15

3.1.2国际和国内养老保险制度差异 19

3.2国际养老保险制度经验 20

3.2.1不同国家养老保险制度发展历程 20

3.2.2基于我国国情的养老保险发展实证研究 23

第4章 结论 27

4.1研究的主要结论 27

4.2对策建议及展望 27

4.2.1对策建议 27

4.2.2展望 30

参考文献 31

附录 33

附录A 模型原始数据 33

附录B Stata主要代码 40

致谢 42

绪论

1.1选题背景及研究意义

1.1.1选题背景

我国的老龄化问题日益严峻，劳动力人口同步萎缩，增加了养老金负担，改革开放以来，由于庞大的人口基数为经济增长带来的人口红利正逐渐消散，人口老龄化使得经济发展的潜力下降，带来一系列的经济难题。

目前，不少发达国家的老龄化指数超过了100；虽然发展中国家的生育率普遍高于发达国家，但老龄化的加速增长同时使得劳动力占比减少，社会财富创造和消费能力随之降低，制约了经济增速。而低生育率也制约了养老保险的缴费能力，以及预期寿命的延长导致养老金支付压力增加，形成了两难局面，最终影响社会对老年人的保障。