摘 要

长江干线沿江铁路运输通道是一个典型的复杂系统，由于沿江铁路运输通道地形地势的特殊性，其运输工作过程中时常会受到外界环境或作业内部各因素的影响，从而导致某路段交通流突增造成拥堵或者线路完全不能正常工作，即该路段崩溃。而沿江铁路运输通道是多个路段联系在一起的，运输通道的其中一段崩溃，则会引起其他路段的连锁反应，最终影响整个运输通道的正常运行。沿江铁路的以上特性是作为复杂系统的固有属性——脆性。本文的有关论证表明沿江铁路运输通道在某些因素的影响下可能无法做到货畅其流、人便于行，甚至有碍运输工作的正常进行，因此该系统具有明显的脆性特征。

在此背景下，评价研究长江干线沿江铁路运输通道的脆性特征可以有效预防和缓解运输网络崩溃，保证运输通道内旅客和货物的正常运输，为沿江铁路运输通道的运营组织管理提供重要的理论价值和现实意义。

本文主要基于模糊综合评判方法对长江干线沿江铁路运输通道脆性进行评价研究，通过查阅长江干线沿江铁路运输通道的相关文献资料，了解沿江铁路运输通道的脆性主要表现在哪些指标上，为建模提供可靠的数据。建立模糊综合评判模型后再进行改进、完善和验证，使模型更加符合长江干线沿江铁路运输通道的实际情况。在选取典型对象进行模型测算后，提出优化设计方案，对模型的运行结果进行分析，并给出相关建议。

关键词：长江干线；铁路通道；脆性；模糊综合评判法

Abstract

The railway transportation channel along the Yangtze River trunk line is a typical complex system. Because of the particularity of the topography of the railway transportation channel along the Yangtze River, the transportation work process is often affected by the external environment or various factors inside the operation, resulting in a road traffic flow surges cause congestion or line can't work normally, that is, the road collapse. But the railway transportation channel along the Yangtze River is connected with many sections of the road, the collapse of one section of the transport channel will cause a chain reaction of other sections and eventually affect the normal operation of the entire transport channel. The above characteristics of the railway along the Yangtze River are the inherent attributes of the complex system-brittleness.The relevant demonstration of this paper shows that under the influence of some factors, the railway transportation channel along the Yangtze River may not be able to the goods be transported smoothly and passengers travel conveniently, even obstruct the normal transportation work. Therefore, the system has obvious brittleness characteristics.

In this context, the evaluation and study of the brittleness characteristics of the railway transport channel along the Yangtze River trunk line can effectively prevent and alleviate the collapse of the transport network and ensure the normal transportation of passengers and goods in the transport channel. It provides important theoretical value and practical significance for the operation organization and management of the railway transportation channel along the Yangtze River.

This paper is mainly based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the brittleness of the railway transportation channel along the Yangtze River trunk line. By consulting the relevant documents of the railway transport channel along the Yangtze River, the main indicators of brittleness along the railway transport channel along the Yangtze River are understood, and the reliable data for the modeling are provided. After establishing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, it is improved, perfected and verified, so that the model is more in line with the actual situation of the railway transportation corridor along the Yangtze River. After selecting typical objects for model calculation, the optimization design scheme is put forward, and the operation results of the model are analyzed, and relevant suggestions are given.

Keywords:Yangtze River trunk line;Railway passage;Brittleness;Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

目 录

摘要.................................................................................................................................................Ⅰ

Abstract...........................................................................................................................................Ⅱ

第1章 绪论...................................................................................................................................1

1.1 研究目的与意义..............................................................................................................1

1.1.1 研究背景...............................................................................................................1

1.1.2 目的与意义...........................................................................................................1

1.2 国内外研究概况..............................................................................................................2

1.2.1 长江干线沿江铁路运输通道研究.......................................................................2

1.2.2 复杂系统脆性研究理论与方法...........................................................................3

1.3 本文的主要内容及技术路线..........................................................................................4

1.3.1 主要内容...............................................................................................................4

1.3.2 研究方法和技术路线...........................................................................................5

第2章 沿江铁路运输网络现状分析...........................................................................................6

2.1 长江干线沿江铁路运输通道概述与现状......................................................................6

2.1.1 空间位置...............................................................................................................6

2.1.2 产业布局...............................................................................................................7

2.1.3 自然资源...............................................................................................................7

2.1.4 经济特征...............................................................................................................8

2.2 长江干线沿江铁路运输网络存在的问题......................................................................8