摘 要

必读参考资料：

1.孙文林, 王超, 康瑞,等. 冰区航行船舶推进系统设计的若干考虑[J].

船舶工程, 2015(9):31-36.

2.郑世博, 索双武, 刘春辉,等. 冰区加强大型商船推进系统研究[J]. 舰船科学技术, 2015, 37(5):114-118.

3.Fu S, Zhang D, Montewka J, et al. Towards a probabilistic model for predicting ship besetting in ice in arctic waters[J]. Reliability Engineering amp; System Safety, 2016, 155:124-136.

4.Montewka J, Goerlandt F, Kujala P, et al. Towards probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice[J]. Cold Regions Science amp; Technology, 2015, 112:14-28.

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摘 要

随着全球气温变暖，极地海冰快速融化，北极航道的通航时间也逐渐增长。极地的通航时间的增加促进了极地航运事业的不断发展，由于极地具有潜在的战略价值和商业利益，因此各国都在不断加强对于极地的研究和发展。

随着北极航道的开发和极地航运事业的发展，对极地船舶各项性能的要求也逐渐增加，特别加强了对船舶能效和安全方面的研发。船舶推进效率作为一项能指示船舶能效方面的指标，而被广泛的应用。

为达到计算研究不同冰情下船舶推进效率的计算研究方法，首先，针对“永盛轮”的相关数据，将数据进行计算、整理和分析，建立可定量化计算船舶推进效率的数学模型，计算出推进效率。

然后，提取要研究的环境因素，建立船舶推进效率的BP神经网络模型，得到极地环境因素和推进效率之间预测模型。

最后，结合不同冰情环境与推进效率之间的耦合关系，就提高推进效率等方面，设定不同情景，分析在某种特定冰情下适宜的航速。

关键词：北极航道；推进效率；BP神经网络；预测

Abstract

With the global warming, polar sea ice quickly melted, the Arctic channel navigation time is also growing. The increase in the transit time of the polar regions has contributed to the continuous development of the polar shipping industry. As the polar regions have potential strategic value and commercial interests, countries are constantly strengthening their research and development for polar regions.

With the development of the Arctic channel and the development of the polar shipping industry, the requirements for the performance of polar ships have also increased, with particular emphasis on the development of ship energy efficiency and safety. Ship propulsion efficiency is widely used as an indicator of ship energy efficiency.

In order to meet the calculation method of calculating the propulsion efficiency of ship under different ice conditions, firstly, according to the relevant data of "Yongsheng ", the data are calculated, collated and analyzed, and a mathematical model of quantitative calculation of ship propulsion efficiency is established. Promote efficiency.

Then, the BP neural network model of ship propulsion efficiency is established by extracting the environmental factors to be studied, and the prediction model between polar environmental factors and propulsion efficiency is obtained.

Finally, combined with the coupling relationship between different ice environment and propulsion efficiency, we can set different scenarios to improve the propulsion efficiency and analyze the appropriate speed in a given ice condition.

Keywords: Arctic Channel；propulsion efficiency；BP neural network；prediction