摘 要

现行的公交时刻表编制方法主要有两种：均匀间隔发车与均衡载客量发车，前者以特征时段内相等的车头时距进行公交班次运营，所有班次乘客平均候车时间都相等，有利于提升站点乘客候车服务的可靠性；后者以特征时段内相等的载客量进行公交班次运营，使得所有班次拥挤程度相同，有利于提升乘客乘车服务的舒适性。然而，当特征时段内客流到达率波动较大时，均匀间隔发车方案将会导致班次之间载客不均衡以及乘客总候车时间增加的问题，均衡载客量发车方案将会导致班次之间行车间隔失稳以及部分班次乘客候车时间过长的问题。

为了解决均匀间隔发车方案与均衡载客量发车方案之间服务可靠性与舒适性的悖论，本文提出了一种基于乘客总候车时间最小的公交发车间隔方案，它能够兼顾均匀间隔发车方案（较高的候车时间可靠性）与均衡载客量发车方案（均衡的载客人数）的优点，同时还能使得特征时段内乘客总候车时间达到更小。通过数值仿真分析发现，本文提出的均衡候车时间发车间隔方案能够保障乘客总候车时间在客流密度高时比均匀间隔发车方法小，在客流密度低时比均衡载客量发车间隔方法小，且发车间隔与车内载客量的波动程度均介于均匀间隔发车方案与均衡载客量发车方案二者之间，验证了其准确性与有效性。最后针对上述三种发车间隔方案的共性特征，提出了公交发车间隔方案的统一模型，并通过数值模拟方法分析了模型的关键参数在不同取值条件下对乘客候车时间、发车间隔均匀程度以及载客均衡程度的影响，结果表明本文提出的均衡候车时间发车间隔方案在所有发车间隔方案当中综合性能表现最佳。研究成果对于公交调度计划的编制以及改善公交服务质量具有一定的价值与意义。

关键词：交通工程；公共汽车交通；时刻表；候车时间

Abstract

There are two prevailing methods of constructing the bus timetables: even headways with smooth transitions and headways with even average loads. The first is used to operate the bus with an equal headway in characteristic period, it means the average waiting time of all passengers on all flights is the same and it can improve the service reliability at the station; the second is used to operate the bus with an equal passenger load, it means the equal loads in all flights and it can improve passenger comfort. However, when the fluctuation of passenger arrival rate during characteristic period is large, the first method would lead to an imbalanced loads between flights and an increased total passenger waiting time, and the second would lead to an unstable interval between flights and a long waiting time of passengers on some flights.

To solve this problem, this paper put forward a new method for the optimization of bus service interval considering the passenger waiting time, which can combine the advantages of even headways with smooth transitions (high reliability of waiting time) and headways with even average loads (a balanced number of passengers), and minimize the total waiting time of passengers during the characteristic period. After the numerical simulation, the result found that the proposed approach makes total passengers waiting time smaller than the first method in high passenger density, and smaller than the second in low passenger density, and the fluctuation degree is between the two methods, thus the accuracy and validity of the model was verified. Finally based on the above three methods, the paper puts forward a united model, and analyze the key parameters of the model through the numerical simulation for the influence of passenger waiting time, departure interval and passenger loads, which shows the balanced waiting time interval method proposed in this paper performs best in all the schemes. The research results of this paper have contributed to the construction of bus schedule and improving bus service.

Key Words：traffic engineering；bus traffic；time table；passenger waiting time

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 2

1.3 研究目的与意义 4

1.4 研究定位、内容与方法 5

1.5 论文结构 6

第2章 基于乘客候车时间最小的时刻表优化模型 8

2.1 问题分析 8

2.2 模型假设 8

2.3 优化模型 9

2.3.1 模型建立及求解 9

2.3.2 模型简化及其取等条件 10

2.3.3 模型分析 11

第3章 公交时刻表模拟仿真评价 13

3.1 车头时距均匀程度评价 14

3.2 载客均衡程度评价 15

3.3 乘客候车时间评价 17

第4章 参数灵敏度分析 19

4.1车头时距均匀程度评价 19

4.2载客均衡程度评价 20

4.3乘客候车时间评价 21

第5章 结论与展望 24

5.1 主要研究成果与创新点 24

5.2 研究不足与展望 24

参考文献 26

附录A 原始数据 28

附录B 程序代码 31

致 谢 39

第1章 绪论

1.1 研究背景