论文总字数：19520字

摘 要

船舶交通流量受许多因素影响，很难用精确的数学模型来描述。随着计算机技术的发展和仿真平台的出现，交通流仿真有了重要发展。用仿真建立交通流仿真模型，能够有效的分析港口、沿海、内河等航道通航能力。航运正在向规模化、大型化、智能化方向发展但仍然会有碰撞、搁浅、船舶操纵能力受限、航道利用率等问题存在人们经常通过研究交通流，通过模拟，结合往日的船舶流实际情况对比分析，可以证实模拟的有效性。有助于我们对今后的船舶流情况进行预测，评估航道、港口的实际运行情况，并在现有基础上进行优化改良。本文讨论了以Anylogic仿真船舶交通流，建立模型以及对结果进行分析。

本文首先分析了船舶的交通流特征，包括船舶行为、船舶交通流量、船舶密度、航迹分布四个方面，然后基于AIS数据提取计算，包括固定水域网格计算法和变化水域网格计算法，分析了基于交通流特征的船舶和航线规划，同时讨论了船舶交通流的建模方法，分析了船舶交通流仿真的关键技术，选择了仿真平台，设计了逻辑流程，构建了模型最后介绍了Anylogic仿真的应用，讨论了基于Anylogic仿真的交通流仿真模型的建立，以上海港为例，仿真了其一年内的船舶流情况。案例参数包括船舶速度、船舶种类构成以及船舶在泊时间，选取了一月内船舶流数据，与实际数据进行了对比分析，其在整体趋势上与实际情况保持了一致，然后进行定量分析，证实了仿真的有效性，为今后预测该港口实际交通情况提供帮助。

关键词：船舶交通流；仿真；Anylogic

Abstract

Ship traffic flow is affected by many factors, so it is difficult to describe it with accurate mathematical model. People often study it through simulation. Through the simulation, combined with the comparison and analysis of the actual situation of the ship flow in the past, the validity of the simulation can be confirmed, which is helpful for us to predict the future ship flow situation, evaluate the actual operation of the channel and port, and optimize and improve on the existing basis.

This paper first analyzes the characteristics of ship traffic flow, including ship behavior, ship traffic flow, ship density and track distribution. Then, based on AIS data extraction and calculation, including fixed water area grid calculation and variable water area grid calculation, it analyzes the ship and route planning based on the characteristics of traffic flow, discusses the modeling method of ship traffic flow, and analyzes The key technology of ship traffic flow simulation is to select the simulation platform and design the logic flow. The system model is constructed. Finally, the paper introduces the application of Anylogic simulation, discusses the establishment of traffic flow simulation model based on Anylogic simulation, and takes Shanghai port as an example to simulate the ship flow in one year. The case parameters include ship speed, ship type composition and ship berthing time. The ship flow data within one month is selected and compared with the actual data. The overall trend is consistent with the actual situation. Then quantitative analysis is carried out. The total error rate is within 5%, which proves the effectiveness of the simulation and provides help for the prediction of the actual traffic situation of the port in the future.

Key words: Ship Traffic Flow; Simulation; Anylogic

目录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

目录 III

第1章 绪论 1

1.1选题的背景和意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状 2

1.2.1国外研究 2

1.2.2国内研究 2

1.3研究内容 2

1.4技术路线 3

第2章 船舶交通流特征分析 4

2.1船舶行为 4

2.2船舶交通流量 4

2.3船舶密度 5

2.4航迹分布 6

第3章 基于AIS数据的船舶交通流特征的应用 7

3.1固定水域网格计算法 7

3.2变化水域网格计算法 9

3.3基于交通流特征的船舶领域 10

3.4基于交通流特征的航线规划 10

第4章 港口船舶交通流仿真模型设计与实现 13

4.1仿真平台选择及分析 13

4.2逻辑流程设计 13

4.3构建系统模型 14

4.3.1模型初始化 14

4.3.2模拟系统设计 14

第5章 基于Anylogic的仿真案例分析 17

5.1港口概况 17

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