摘 要

突发公共安全事件是目前全球关注的焦点。新冠肺炎疫情的爆发以及防控措施对人们的医、食、住、行以及心理等各方面都带来了巨大影响，这种影响进一步关系着公众的安全感，公众安全感是公众最基本的心理需求，也是衡量人类生活质量的重要指标，公众安全感危机为社会稳定和安全管理带来挑战。

本文首先采用文献调研法对公共安全感相关研究的现状进行了梳理，界定了新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感的基本内涵，将其与传统的治安安全感区分开来。接着深入分析了疫情中公众安全感的影响因素，耦合德尔菲法构建了针对新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感评估的指标体系，其中包括一级指标5个、二级指标12个、三级指标28个。在此基础上，引入模糊综合评价法建立新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感评估模型，通过问卷设计、数据收集与分析对我国居民，特别是湖北省武汉市居民疫情期间的公众安全感进行了评估。评估结果显示，在新冠肺炎疫情期间，公众安全感总体明显偏低，但我国幅员辽阔，疫情“震中”安全感水平最低，而其他省份公众安全感相对较高；在同一区域，由于城乡居住环境和生活方式差异，农村公众安全感相对较高。本文研究面对现实需求，有助于进一步完善公众安全感相关理论，为相关部门开展突发公共卫生事件公共安全感的监测监控，科学制定应急管理策略提供科技支撑和指导。

关键词：新冠肺炎；公众安全感；指标体系；评估

Abstract

Public safety emergencies are currently the focus of global attention. The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and its prevention and control measures have had a huge impact on people's medical, food, housing, transportation, and psychological aspects. This pandemic further affects the public security, which is fundamental for people’s psychological demand and is also an important indicator to measure the quality of human life. The public security crisis has brought challenges to social stability and security management.

By using the literature survey method, this paper first summarized the current status of related research on public security, defines the basic connotation of public security in Covid-19 pandemic, and distinguishes it from the traditional sense of public security. Then an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors of public safety in the epidemic was conducted, coupled with the Delphi method to build an index system for public safety assessment in the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, including 5 first-level indicators, 12 second-level indicators, and 28 third-level indicators. On this basis, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was introduced to establish an assessment model for public safety in Covid-19. Through questionnaire design, data collection and analysis, the public safety during the epidemic was evaluated for residents in China, especially in Wuhan, Hubei Province. The evaluation results show that during Covid-19 pandemic, the public's sense of security is obviously low, but China has a vast territory, and the epicenter of the epidemic has the lowest level of security, while others are relatively higher. Unlike the residents in cities, the suburban residents have a relatively higher sense of security. With the study of practical needs will help to improve the relevant theories of public safety, provide scientific and technological support and guidance for relevant departments to carry out monitoring public safety in public health emergencies, and help to develop emergency management strategies scientifically.

Key Words：Covid-19；sense of public safety；indicator system; evaluation

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究意义 2

1.2.1 理论意义 2

1.2.2实践意义 2

1.3国内外研究综述 3

1.3.1 公众安全感内涵研究综述 3

1.3.2 公众安全感指标体系研究综述 4

1.3.3 公众安全感评估模型研究综述 5

1.4 研究内容与方法 6

1.4.1 研究内容 6

1.4.2 研究方法 6

1.4.3 研究的技术路线图 7

第2章 公众安全感的内涵及理论基础 9

2.1新冠肺炎公众安全感的内涵 9

2.2 研究理论基础 9

2.2.1 马斯洛需要层次理论 9

2.2.2 风险感知理论 10

2.2.3 社会契约理论 10

2.2.4 社会支持理论 10

第3章 疫情期间公众安全感评价指标体系 12

3.1 影响疫情期间公众安全感的因素分析 12

3.1.1 生活保障因素 13

3.1.2 疫情形势因素 13

3.1.3 政府应对因素 13

3.1.4 媒体信息因素 14

3.1.5 社会支持因素 14

3.2 指标体系设计的原则 14

3.2.1 针对性原则 14

3.2.2 代表性与特异性相结合 14

3.2.2 可操作与人性化原则 15

3.3 新冠肺炎疫情中公共安全感指标体系的初步制定 15

3.4 基于德尔菲法的公共安全感指标体系修正 16

3.4.1 德尔菲法 16

3.4.2 专家评价的结果 17

第4章 基于模糊综合评价法的新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感评估模型 21

4.1模糊综合评价法 21

4.2确定因素集和评语集 21

4.3基于层次分析法评价权重向量 22

4.3.1构造判断矩阵 22

4.3.2一致性检验与单层次排序 23

4.3.3赋权结果 24

4.4构建评价矩阵 25

4.5评价结果分析 25

第5章 新冠肺炎疫情期间公众安全感评估 27

5.1 问卷设计 27

5.2 问卷发放 28

5.3样本基本情况 29

5.4评估的结果 30

5.4.1样本总体评估结果 30

5.4.2不同样本性质评估结果的差异 30

第6章 结论与展望 33

6.1结论 33

6.2展望 33

参考文献 35

致 谢 37

附 录 39

1 新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感的指标体系专家咨询问卷 39

2 新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感的指标体系赋权专家打分问卷 40

3 新冠肺炎疫情中公众安全感调查问卷 41

第1章 绪论

1.1 研究背景