摘 要

洪涝灾害是世界范围内最严重的自然灾害之一，每年造成巨大的损失。洪涝灾害包含了内涝和洪水两方面。其中，由于强降雨、冰雪融化、冰凌、堤坝溃决、风暴潮等原因造成江河湖泊和沿海水位增加、水位上涨而泛滥以及山洪爆发所造成的灾害统称为洪水灾害；因大雨、暴雨或长期降雨量过于集中而产生大量的积水和径流，排水不及时，致使土地、房屋等渍水、受淹而造成的灾害称为内涝灾害。由于洪水和内涝在现实中经常一起发生，难以区别，故统称为洪涝。

武汉市是遭受洪涝灾害最严重的区域之一。仅2016年6月初到7月上旬，暴雨所引发的洪涝灾害就造成了武汉全市12个区的75.7万人受灾。灾民转移安置人次达到167897。97404公顷的农作物受损，其中绝收有32160公顷。倒塌房屋2357户5848间，严重损坏房屋370户982间，一般性房屋损坏130户393间。直接经济损失达到22.65亿元。因灾死亡14人，失踪1人。对武汉市作进行暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估，并提出相关意见建议具有现实意义。

本论文以武汉市为研究区，收集和整理武汉市降雨、地理、气象、水文、经济等数据，依据自然灾害风险理论，通过层次分析法、洪涝灾害风险指标法，构建武汉市暴雨洪涝灾害风险指标体系，通过洪涝灾害风险指数绘制了洪涝灾害相对风险图，并针对武汉市的暴雨洪涝灾害提出防灾减灾建议和意见。

研究结果表明：江夏区因为耕地面积大，处于洪涝灾害高风险区；江汉区、江岸区、武昌区因为人口密度大，地均GDP高，所以处于较高风险区；而东西湖区和蔡甸区则处于暴雨洪涝灾害低风险区。研究可供武汉市编制防洪减灾规划参考，为当地的经济建设和人民生命财产安全提供保障。

关键词：暴雨洪涝灾害，风险分析，风险图，洪涝灾害风险指数

Abstract

Floods are one of the most serious natural disasters in the world, causing huge losses each year. Floods include both waterlogging and floods. Among them, due to heavy rainfall, snow and ice melting, ice, dams, storms and other causes of rivers and lakes and coastal water level increases, the water level and flooding and flash floods caused by the disaster collectively referred to as floods; due to heavy rain, heavy rain or long-term rainfall Too concentrated and produce a lot of water and runoff, drainage is not timely, resulting in land, housing and other waterlogging, flooded and caused by the disaster known as the waterlogging disaster. As floods and waterlogging in reality often occur together, it is difficult to distinguish, it is collectively referred to as floods.

Wuhan is one of the most serious areas of flooding. Only in early June 2016 to early July, the floods caused by the floods caused the city of Wuhan City, 12.77 million people affected. The victims were transferred to 167897.97404 hectares of crops, of which 32160 hectares were harvested. Collapsed housing 2357 households 5848, serious damage to housing 370 households 982, general housing damage 130 households 393. Direct economic losses reached 2.265 billion yuan. 14 people died due to disaster, missing one person. It is of practical significance to evaluate the risk of flood and flood disaster in Wuhan and put forward the relevant opinions and suggestions.

Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, this paper analyzes the risk of rainstorm and flood disaster in Wuhan City by means of AHP and flood hazard risk index method. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, this paper takes Wuhan City as the research area, collects and collates the data of rainfall, geography, meteorology, hydrology and economy in Wuhan. Index system, the flood risk index is used to draw out the relative risk map of flood disaster and put forward the suggestions and opinions on disaster prevention and mitigation for rainstorm and flood disaster in Wuhan.

The results show that the Jiangxia area, Jiangan District and Wuchang District are in high risk areas because of the large population density and high GDP, while the East and West Lake area and the Caidian District are in the high risk area. The study can be used for the preparation of flood control and disaster reduction planning in Wuhan City, and provide protection for local economic construction and people's life and property safety.

Key words: rainstorm flood disaster, risk analysis, risk map, flood disaster risk index

第一章 绪论 1

1.1研究背景 1

1.2研究的目的和意义 1

1.3国内外研究现状 2

1.3.1国内研究现状 2

1.3.2国外研究现状 2

第二章 研究方法及数据来源 3

2.1理论与方法 3

2.1.1灾害风险评估理论 3

2.1.2层次分析法 3

2.1.3洪涝灾害风险指数 4

2.2数据获取 4

第三章 研究区域概况 5

3.1地理位置 5

3.2气象水文 6

3.3社会经济 7

3.4河流水文 8

第四章武汉暴雨洪涝灾害风险分析 9

4.1构建指标体系 9

4.2危险性评估 11

4.2暴露性评估 13

4.3脆弱性评估 14

4.4暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估 15

第五章 对策及小结 17

参考文献 18

致谢 19

第一章 绪论

1.1研究背景

由于洪水灾害和雨涝灾害往往同时或连续发生在同一地区，有时难以准确界定，往往统称为洪涝灾害。我国是洪涝灾害频繁的国家。据史书记载，从公元前206年至公元1949年中华人民共和国成立的2155年间，大水灾就发生了1029次，几乎每两年就有一次。

只有当洪水发生在有人类活动的地方才能成灾。受洪水威胁最大的地区往往是江河中下游地区，而中下游地区因其水源丰富、土地平坦又常常是经济发达地区。武汉地处江汉平原东部，长江中游。夏季气温受季风气候影响，气温高而降雨量大，武汉夏季降雨量在450mm-550mm之间，占据了年降雨量的40%。

武汉地势为东高西低，南高北低，中间被长江、汉江呈Y字型切割成三块。武汉城区南部分布有近东西走向的条带状丘陵，四周分布有比较密集的树枝状冲沟，暴雨经常导致武汉市爆发泥石流和洪涝灾害，给武汉市人民生活带来了巨大的损失，因此，作为湖北省防洪减灾重点地区，对武汉市暴雨规律的研究和暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究具有一定的现实意义。

1.2研究的目的和意义

从洪涝灾害的发生机制来看，洪涝具有明显的季节性、区域性和可重复性。武汉地区的洪涝几乎全部都发生在夏季，并且成因也基本上相同，但是从大规模、长历时上分析，在一定区域内，气候变化过程其实是逐步进行的，有迹可循的。我们可以通过对洪涝灾害与武汉降雨量、地理、气象、水文、经济等因素的研究得到一定规律。暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估是水利学者和气象学者的研究热点，风险评估主要是以预防为主的，它与工程措施相辅相成，共同铸就了保卫武汉市人民安全的一道长城。