论文总字数：23201字

摘 要

电力是我国能源消耗中的一个重要组成部分，在我国的能源结构中占据重要地位。随着近年来我国经济的高速发展，我国的用电量也在逐年提高，如今已经高居世界第一。在如此大的体量下，合理分配用电、避免用电紧张就变得尤为重要。因此基于夜间灯光数据对用电量进行及时有效地分析预测有重要意义。

本文以北京市为例，利用夜光数据，在经过数据预处理和去除背景噪声后，提取北京市各市辖区2014-2018年各市辖区的灯光总强度，并依据各市辖区的平均灯光强度和北京市城市功能区划分将各市辖区分类，建立各类市辖区灯光总强度和全区用电量的回归关系模型。在此基础上，通过对北京市各市辖区用电量的反演，得出北京市全市和各市辖区用电量的模拟值，在经过精度评定后，分析北京市用电量的时空变化及其相关因素。本文得出的主要结论如下：

1. 从2014-2018年，北京市的用电量总体呈增长趋势。
2. 北京市各市辖区之间的用电量的空间分布基本保持不变。

（3） 北京市用电量的增量主要集中在北京市中心城区的周围地区。

（4） 北京市全市用电量与人均可支配收入存在较强相关度，与固定资产投资存在一定相关度，而与短期的常住人口小规模变化相关度不高。

关键词：VIIRS/OLS夜间灯光数据；用电量；夜光遥感

Abstract

Electric power is an important component of China's energy consumption and occupies an important position in China's energy structure. With the rapid development of China's economy in recent years, China's electricity consumption has been increasing year by year, and now it ranks first in the world. With such a large volume, it is very important to allocate electricity rationally and avoid electricity tension. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze and forecast electricity consumption based on night light data in a timely and effective manner. Taking Beijing as an example, using the data from the VIIRS/OLS noctilucent after data preprocessing and removing background noise and extract the municipal districts of Beijing municipal districts from 2014 to 2018 the lights of the overall strength, and according to the municipal districts of the average light intensity and the Beijing municipal districts classified by the division of urban functional areas, build all kinds of municipal district the light of the overall strength and power consumption in the regression model. On this basis, through the inversion of the electricity consumption of each municipal jurisdiction in Beijing, the simulated value of the electricity consumption of the whole city of Beijing and each municipal jurisdiction is obtained. After the accuracy evaluation, the space-time variation of the electricity consumption of Beijing and its related factors are analyzed. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:

(1) from 2014 to 2018, the overall electricity consumption of Beijing has shown an increasing trend.

(2) the spatial distribution of electricity consumption among different municipal districts in Beijing basically remains unchanged.

(3) the increase of power consumption in Beijing is mainly concentrated in the surrounding areas of the central urban area of Beijing.

(4) there is a strong correlation between electricity consumption and per capita disposable income in Beijing, and there is a certain correlation between electricity consumption and fixed asset investment, while there is no high correlation between electricity consumption and short-term small changes in resident population.

Key: VIIRS/OLS; Electricity consumption; Remote sensing of night light

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

1 绪论 1

1.1背景与研究意义 1

1.1.1背景 1

1.1.2研究意义 1

1.2研究现状 2

1.2.1对城市用电量预测的研究 2

1.2.2夜光遥感的应用 2

1.2.3基于夜光遥感的用电量研究 4

1.3.本文的研究内容和结构 5

2 研究区与数据 7

2.1研究区概况 7

2.1.1社会经济状况 7

2.1.2自然地理状况 7

2.1.3用电量状况 8

2.2研究数据及数据预处理 9

2.2.1NPP/VIIRS数据及其处理 9

2.2.2统计数据 11

3 用电量模拟模型构建 12

3.1灯光指数计算 12

3.1.1灯光指数的介绍和选择 12

3.1.2TNL指数的计算 12

3.2.基于灯光指数的用电量模拟模型构建 14

3.2.1市辖区分类 14

4 模型精度及分析 18

4.1精度评定 18

4.1.1用电量模拟 18

4.1.2相对误差的计算与分析 18

4.2用电量的时空变化分析 21

4.3用电量影响因素相关性分析 24

5 结论与展望 27

参考文献 28

1 绪论

1.1背景与研究意义

1.1.1背景

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