摘 要

本研究从互联网融合（又称“互联网 ”）对于传统产业市场结构的影响这一基本问题出发，通过机理分析、数理推导、实证分析、总结探讨这四个方面对该基本问题进行了阐述。在机理分析的阶段，本研究归纳了国内外学者在互联网融合的竞争效应与垄断效应的研究分析，并认为互联网融合使得传统产业存在总体偏向垄断的多重均衡，提出了互联网融合使传统产业市场结构趋于垄断以及市场容量作为中介变量的基本假设。在数理推导阶段，本研究通过将直接网络外部性与双边市场特性引入传统MES分析框架，最终证明了总体垄断化倾向的存在，并体现了市场容量的中介影响。在实证分析阶段，本研究通过对制造业及其17个细分产业2000年至2014年经验数据的回归分析，结果发现互联网融合与市场集中度、产品差别化呈显著正相关，同时与企业数量呈显著负相关，这表明互联网融合会增加产业的垄断程度，且市场容量存在中介作用，基本假设得到验证；但是另一方面，本研究发现互联网融合会降低产业的进入壁垒或增加在位企业的竞争程度，这说明互联网融合也存在使市场结构竞争化的内在机制。最后，在总结探讨阶段，本研究结合实证结论对在互联网融合下的产业经济发展提出了规模经济、市场行为、中小企业这三方面的政策建议，并通过深层次地分析互联网融合的经济作用机理，得出了（价值）信息是关于互联网融合的经济分析所基于的根本因素。

关键词：互联网融合；市场结构；网络效应；最小有效规模；实证分析

Abstract

The impacts of Internet convergence (or Internet Plus) on market structure of traditional industries were explained by means of mechanism analysis, mathematical derivation, empirical analysis and summary with discussion. In the stage of mechanism analysis, the researches on the competition effect and monopoly effect of Internet convergence in China and abroad were summarized, suggesting that Internet convergence has created multiple equilibria in traditional industries which are generally biased towards monopoly, and the basic hypothesis that the Internet convergence makes the traditional industrial market structure tend to be monopolized and the market capacity is the mediating variable was proposed. In the stage of mathematical derivation, the existence of general tendency towards monopoly was demonstrated by introducing direct network externalities and characteristics of bilateral market into traditional analysis framework of MES. In the stage of the empirical analysis, through the empirical data from 2000 to 2014 of manufacturing and its 17 subdivision industry, this research finished the regression analysis, and the results showed that the Internet convergence was significantly positively related to market concentration and product differentiation. At the same time, the number of enterprises has significant negative correlation with Internet convergence. It indicated that the Internet convergence will increase the degree of monopoly, and the market capacity has the mediating effect, so the basic hypothesis was verified; However, on the other hand, this paper finds that Internet convergence will reduce the industry’s barriers to entry or increase the degree of competition in incumbent enterprises, which indicates that Internet convergence also has an internal mechanism to make the industry competitive. At last, in the stage of summary with discussion, based on the empirical conclusion, this study puts forward three policy suggestions on the development of industrial economy under the Internet convergence, including economies of scale, market behavior and small and medium-sized enterprises, and it was concluded that information (value) is the real source underlying the entire economic analysis of Internet convergence by thoroughly investigating the economic mechanism of Internet convergence.

Key Words：Internet convergence; market structure; network effects; minimum efficient scale; empirical analysis

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

第2章 互联网融合对市场结构影响的机理分析 3

2.1 互联网融合的典型经济事实 3

2.2 互联网融合的经济效应分析——网络经济学经典理论 3

2.3 互联网融合的市场结构影响 4

2.3.1 互联网融合的竞争效应 4

2.3.2 互联网融合的垄断效应 5

2.4 小结 6

第3章 互联网融合条件下市场均衡的数理推导 8

3.1 互联网融合中的消费者行为 8

3.1.1 直接网络外部性——弯曲的需求曲线 8

3.1.2 双边市场特征——交叉网络外部性 9

3.1.3 消费者最终的需求曲线 10

3.2 互联网融合中的生产者行为 11

3.3 最小有效规模下的市场容量 12

3.4 小结——基于数理模型的市场容量规律 13

第4章 基于制造业数据互联网融合的实证分析 16

4.1模型设定 16

4.2 变量设定 16

4.2.1 被解释变量 16

4.2.2 解释变量 17

4.2.3 控制变量 18

4.3 描述统计 18

4.3.1 制造业总体 18

4.3.2 制造业细分产业 21

4.4 推断统计 23

4.4.1 模型一：市场集中度HHI与互联网融合度RIC 23

4.4.2 模型二：产品差别化DAD与互联网融合度RIC 24

4.4.3 模型三：进入壁垒RAP与互联网融合度RIC 25

4.4.4 模型四：企业数量N与互联网融合度RIC 26

第5章 结论 28

5.1 研究结论 28

5.2 政策建议 28

5.3 本质探讨——互联网融合的经济本质 29

参考文献 31

附录A：MATLAB程序代码 33

附录A1：直接网络外部性 33

附录A2：交叉网络外部性 33

附录A3：市场均衡 33

附录B：Python程序代码 35

附录B1：制造业总体数据处理 35