摘 要

本文采用定量分析法对油码头化工区的各项风险进行数据实验分析，通过构建出各类别风险的概率数学模型来辨别港区作业风险，并及时预防危险，所得结果对油码头化工区的安全作业具有指导意义。以相关的法律法规为基础，将普遍性的风险评估方法运用到油港作业上来，研究港区的风险辨识、监测、预防以及概率分析。本文介绍了风险评估的基本原理和风险分析的方法，并利用其中的定量分析法来分析港区的作业风险。从熟悉风险评估理论体系到构建相关数学模型，到将其运用到具体风险，来达到对港区风险的全面评估。另外，着重对油码头的防火防爆、泄漏和中毒分别进行风险评估，帮助企业选择最优经济效益的施工方案，减少不必要的损失，降低事故的发生概率。

关键词：油港；风险；评估；泄漏；概率

Abstract

This paper uses quantitative analysis method to analyze the risks of the oil terminal chemical zone.By constructing the probability mathematical model of various types of risks to identify the operational risks in the port area,and to prevent the hazards in time,the obtained results have a guiding significance for the safe operation of the oil terminal chemical zone.Based on the relevant laws and regulations,the general risk assessment method is applied to the oil port operation to study the risk identification,monitoring,prevention and probability analysis of the port area.This paper introduces the basic principle of risk assessment and the method of risk analysis,and uses the quantitative analysis method to analyze the operational risk in the port area.From familiar with the risk assessment theory system to the construction of relevant mathematical models,to apply it to specific risks,to achieve a comprehensive assessment of the risk in the port area.In addition,the emphasis on the fire and explosion,leakage and poisoning of the oil terminal risk assessment,help enterprises to choose the optimal economic benefits of the construction plan,reduce unnecessary losses,reduce the probability of accident release.

Key words: oil port; Risk; (a) Assessment; Leakage; probability

目 录

第1章 绪论..............................................................................................................1

1.1前景提要......................................................................................................1

2.2安全法规......................................................................................................1

2.2.1规范必要性.......................................................................................1

2.2.2近些年我国完善的风险相关体系法律法规...................................2

2.3研究意义......................................................................................................2

第2章 风险评估的基本原理和风险分析的方法..................................................3

2.1风险的概念..................................................................................................3

2.2风险评估......................................................................................................3

2.2.1风险评估的概念...............................................................................3

2.2.2风险评估的意义...............................................................................3

2.3风险评估的常见方法及其原理..................................................................4

2.3.1定性的风险评估方法.......................................................................4

2.3.1.1专家评议法............................................................................4

2.2.1.2安全检查表法........................................................................4

2.3.2定量的风险评估方法.......................................................................5

2.3.3区域的风险评估方法.......................................................................5

2.3.4单体的风险评估方法.......................................................................5

2.3.4.1以危险有害因子的类别划分单体........................................5

2.3.4.2以装置和物质特征评价单体................................................5

2.3.5综合的风险评估方法.......................................................................5

第3章 油港作业风险分析及风险评价的数学模型..............................................6

3.1油港作业及其风险......................................................................................6

3.1.1油港作业...........................................................................................6

3.1.2油港作业的风险...............................................................................6

3.2油港风险分析及评价..................................................................................6

3.2.1风险评价原则的构建.......................................................................6

3.2.2风险评价指标体系构建的方法.......................................................7

3.2.2.1风险评价的研究....................................................................7

3.2.2.2油港系统和评价方法确定....................................................8

3.2.2.3确定风险评价指标................................................................9

3.2.2.4建立风险评价指标体系........................................................9