摘 要

国际能源与环境问题日趋严峻，第三阶段关于重型汽车的燃料消耗量的限制值征求意见稿已于2016年发布，该意见稿中确定了重型汽车2020年燃料消耗量的限值比2015年燃料消耗量的限值要加严15%。在这样的政策背景下，重型汽车面临更加严峻的节能压力，节能技术成本也将更加高昂。

为进一步了解重型汽车企业未来几年应用节能技术而带来的综合成本的增长趋势走向，进行节能技术、节能成本、市场、能耗法规、企业规划等多个维度的统筹规划，本文在总结动力总成节能技术、轻量化技术、空气动力学优化技术和智能化技术等当前主流传统节能技术的前提下，运用系统动力学原理，建立了重型汽车企业节能技术成本分析模型，并进行了仿真模拟计算。仿真结果显示，重型汽车节能技术的应用带来的企业综合成本的增加是一项复杂的系统问题。动力总成节能技术对成本提升的程度各不相同，传统技术如喷油规律和燃烧的优化变得越来越困难，对燃油消耗率的降低值变得越来越小，但是成本却变得更加高昂；对于增压优化技术、余热回收利用技术等节能技术的节能效果显著，并且对成本增加的影响相对较小。轻量化技术、空气动力学优化技术和智能化技术的成本相对动力总成节能技术成本要小很多，同时这三种节能技术的节能效果也相对显著，在某些动力总成节能技术尚未突破的情况下，要最大程度的应用这三种节能技术。该重型汽车企业节能技术成本分析模型可有效推演企业节能技术成本增加的变化趋势，为重型汽车企业应对未来更加严格的油耗法规提供了有力的参考与数据支撑，具有重要的理论指导意义。

关键词：重型汽车；节能技术；成本分析；系统动力学

Abstract

International energy and environmental problems are becoming increasingly grim. A draft of fuel consumption limit for heavy-duty commercial vehicles (the third stage) has been released in 2016. This draft specifies that fuel consumption limit of heavy-duty commercial vehicles in 2020 should be 85% of fuel consumption limits in 2015, heavy-duty vehicles face severe energy-saving pressure. In this context, heavy-duty car companies will face high regulations to deal with costs.

In order to understand the increasing trend of comprehensive cost brought by the application of the future energy-saving technologies of the vehicle enterprises, the paper summaries current main energy-saving technologies, including powertrain energy-saving technology, lightweight technology, aerodynamic optimization technology and intelligent technology, and builds cost analysis model of energy-saving technologies considering many factors such as technology, cost, market, policy and enterprise planning. The simulation results show that the increase in the overall cost of the enterprise brought by the application of energy-saving technology of heavy vehicles is a complex system problem. Various kinds of powertrain energy-saving technology can increase the cost to varying degrees, the traditional technology such as the optimization of fuel injection and combustion become more and more difficult, the reduction of fuel consumption rate becomes smaller and smaller, but the cost has become higher; for supercharger optimization technology, waste heat recovery technology and other energy-saving technology, energy-saving effect is significant, and the cost increase is relatively small. The cost of lightweight technology, aerodynamic optimization technology and intelligent technology is much smaller than that of powertrain energy-saving technology. At the same time, the energy saving effect of these three energy-saving technologies is relatively remarkable. Therefore, these three energy-saving technologies should be employed to a great extent when powertrain energy-saving technologies have not made great breakthrough. The simulation results show that the cost analysis model can effectively deduce the change of the cost of energy saving technology, and provide powerful reference and data support for heavy-duty vehicle enterprises to deal with more strict fuel consumption regulations. This research is of great theoretical significance in guiding the development of energy-saving technologies.

Key Words：heavy-duty vehicle；energy-saving technology；cost analysis；system dynamics

目 录

第1章 绪论·························································································1

1.1课题研究背景 1

1.2课题研究意义 2

1.3国内外研究现状 2

1.4主要研究内容与技术路线 4

1.4.1研究内容 4

1.4.2 技术路线 4

第2章 重型汽车节能技术研究·································································5

2.1 动力总成节能技术 5

2.1.1 充分挖掘现有技术的节能潜力 5

2.1.2 余热回收技术 6

2.1.3 发动机的智能控制 6

2.2 轻量化技术 6

2.3 空气动力学优化 7

2.4 智能化新技术 7

2.5 本章小结 8

第3章 重型汽车节能技术成本建模···························································9

3.1 系统动力学理论基础 9

3.2 重型汽车节能成本系统动力学建模 10

3.2.1 模型子系统及计算思路 10

3.2.2 各子系统模型流图 11

3.3 变量参数取值及系统方程 13

3.3.1 获取系统数据 13

3.3.2 参数取值 14

3.4 本章小结 21

第4章 重型汽车节能技术成本分析·························································22

4.1 各节能技术成本分析 22

4.2 节能技术综合成本分析 26

4.3 本章小结 27

第5章 结论·······················································································28

5.1 全文总结 28

5.2 展望 28

参考文献··························································································· 30

致 谢······························································································ 32