论文总字数：24325字

摘 要

与常规动力船舶相比，核动力船舶更加高效环保。但由于核动力自身安全性与在船舶上的安装部位相比较于常规动力船舶具有一定差异性，同时核动力自身安全事故风险与船舶碰撞事故风险孰轻孰重仍存在争议。因此，本文首先从核动力船舶自身安全事故风险和碰撞事故风险相关影响因素入手，利用事故树方法，对以上两者进行风险分析，确定两者的风险等级。然后针对核动力船舶和常规动力船舶碰撞部位的损害进行仿真，确定核动力船舶和常规动力船舶碰撞部位的损失对比情况，给出减少船舶碰撞损失的船舶碰撞部位的具体建议。

本文在以下方面开展了相关研究工作:

（1）研究针对舰船核动力系统和船舶碰撞历史事故，确定核动力舰船事故，风险评估目标及风险等级划分。挖掘核动力舰船航行风险的始发事件，对始发事件及相应指标进行无量纲化处理，建立基于舰船核动力系统设计的定量化动力安全指标。针对舰船核动力系统安全具体目标，建立影响指标-权重为基础的风险评价体系。建立事故树模型，对核动力船舶自身安全事故风险和碰撞事故风险进行分析，确定两者的风险等级。

（2）结合有限元仿真，对常规动力船舶及核动力船舶进行分析，通过对比分析来确定船舶碰撞危险部位，以此指导船舶碰撞时的相对位置，以便降低损失。

关键词：核动力；动态权重；事故树；熵权法；碰撞部位仿真

Abstract

Compared with conventional ships, nuclear ships are more efficient and environmentally friendly. However, due to the difference between the safety of nuclear power itself and the installation position on the ship compared with the conventional power ship, at the same time, it is still controversial whether the safety risk of nuclear power itself or the risk of ship collision. Therefore, in this paper, first of all, from the nuclear power ship's own safety accident risk and collision accident risk related factors, using the fault tree method, the above two risk analysis, to determine the risk level of the two. Then, according to the damage simulation of the collision parts of the nuclear power ship and the conventional power ship, the loss comparison of the collision parts of the nuclear power ship and the conventional power ship is determined, and the specific suggestions to reduce the collision loss of the ship are given.

This paper has carried out relevant research work in the following aspects:

(1) In this paper, aiming at the historical accidents of nuclear power system and ship collision, the nuclear power ship accidents, risk assessment objectives and risk classification are determined. Mining the initial event of navigation risk of nuclear power ship, dealing with the initial event and the corresponding index dimensionless, establishing the quantitative dynamic safety index based on the design of nuclear power system of ship. Aiming at the specific safety target of ship nuclear power system, a risk evaluation system based on influence index weight is established. The fault tree model is established to analyze the risk of nuclear power ship's own safety accident and collision accident, and determine the risk level of both.

(2) Combined with the finite element simulation, the conventional power ship and nuclear power ship are analyzed, and the dangerous parts of ship collision are determined through comparative analysis, so as to guide the relative position of ship collision, so as to reduce the loss.

Key words: nuclear power; dynamic weight; fault tree; entropy weight method; collision position simulation

目录

1研究背景和意义 1

1.1研究背景和现状 1

1.1.1研究背景 1

1.1.2 研究现状 1

1.2研究内容及技术路线 2

2核动力舰船事故影响因素分析 5

2.1核动力舰船事故影响因素识别 5

2.2基于熵权法的舰船核动力事故关键影响因素筛选 7

3因素基础概率计算及权重分析 12

3.1基于贝叶斯理论的始发事件概率分析 12

3.2基于事故树方法的核动力始发事件权重分析 15

3.3基于动态权重分析的舰船碰撞事故始发事件权重分析 18

3.4小结 21

4船舶碰撞危险区间界定及后果评价 22

4.1碰撞船舶有限元模型建立 22

4.1.2参数定义 23

4.2碰撞区间有限元仿真分析 24

4.2.2碰撞应力分析 26

4.2.3结构损伤分析 30

4.3船舶碰撞后果评价 31

4.3.1碰撞后果分析 31

4.4危险区间综合界定 33

4.5小结 34

5结论与展望 35

5.1研究结论 35

5.2研究展望 36

参考文献 37

1研究背景和意义

1.1研究背景和现状

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