论文总字数：29634字

摘 要

随着我国“一带一路”战略的持续推进，对外贸易快速发展。货物贸易量逐年增高，随之而来的货物运输需求也不断扩大。水路运输作为一种运量大、成本低、能耗低、污染小的运输方式，承载了跨境贸易中的绝大多数货物，也成为了洲际货运必不可少的运输方式。在船舶向大型化、快速化和智能化逐步发展的今天，我国现有水运环境对航运业进一步发展能否满足已变得尤为重要。

本文通过对在现有航道设施不变的环境下的船舶通过能力进行计算来求取复杂环境下船舶的通过能力。在船舶流量大，船舶通行情况复杂的场景下借助时空消耗法来求取繁忙水域下的船舶通过能力。

具体研究工作包括以下几个方面：

（1）对船舶通过能力和通过能力影响因素做出了明确定义和详细分析，同时指出了船舶通过能力局限的影响因素及改进方法；

（2）引入结构化理论，定量分析交通流结构特征并进行提炼和分析，运用聚类分析和概率统计参数化等方法对船舶特征和船舶行为特征进行识别并分类，建立了船舶通过能力计算的基础模型；

（3）对时空消耗理论的定义和应用深入理解学习，并运用时空消耗理论，构建了复杂水域环境下的船舶通过能力动态计算模型；
（4）在通航环境改变的情况下分别在内河、港口、桥区和库区的环境下进行了计算模型实用性实验，并且模拟真实环境进行验证分析。

本论文的研究内容不仅能更深一步地探索现有水域条件下的航道通过力，也可以为内河水域锚地规划，航道建设等方面提供一定的理论支持；特别是对于繁忙水域的通航秩序、航道资源利用等有着重要的意义。能为我国水运工程领域下一步的发展指明方向、为航道工程的规划和设计提供理论支持和科学依据，而且对内河、港口等复杂水域的安全生产、资源利用、通航秩序、设备维护都有着重要的价值，更重要的是对我国水路运输业在可持续性发展的绿色水运经济的过程中有着重要的理论价值和现实意义。

关键词：船舶通过能力计算；交通流；时空消耗；港口航道；船舶行为特征

Abstract

With the continuous advancement of China's "One Belt And One Road" strategy, foreign trade has developed rapidly. The volume of goods trade is increasing year by year, and the accompanying demand for goods transportation is also expanding. As a transportation mode with large volume, low cost, low energy consumption and low pollution, waterway transportation carries most of the goods in cross-border trade and has become an indispensable transportation mode for intercontinental freight. Nowadays, with the gradual development of large, fast and intelligent ships, the existing water transportation environment in China has become particularly important for the further development of the shipping industry.

In this paper, the passage capacity of ships in complex environment is calculated by calculating the passage capacity of ships in the environment with the existing channel facilities unchanged. In the scene of large ship flow and complex ship passage, the passage capacity of ships in busy waters is obtained by means of spatio-temporal consumption method.

Specific research work includes the following aspects:

(1) Make a clear definition and detailed analysis of the ship passing capacity and the factors affecting the ship passing capacity, and point out the factors affecting the ship passing capacity and the improvement methods;

(2) Introduce structural theory, make a quantitative analysis of traffic flow structure characteristics, refine and analyze them, use clustering analysis and probabilistic statistical parameterization to identify and classify ship characteristics and ship behavior characteristics, and establish the basic model of ship capacity calculation;

(3) Deeply understand and learn the definition and application of the space-time consumption theory, and use the space-time consumption theory to build the ship passing capacity dynamic calculation model in complex water environment;

(4) Under the circumstance that the navigable environment is changed, the practical experiment of the calculation model is carried out in the environment of inland river, port, bridge area and reservoir area respectively, and the real environment is simulated for verification and analysis.

The research content of this paper can not only further explore the channel passage force under the existing water area conditions, but also provide certain theoretical support for inland water anchorage planning, channel construction and other aspects; In particular, it is of great significance to the navigation order of busy waters and the utilization of waterway resources. For water transport engineering in China in the next development direction, for waterway engineering planning and design to provide theoretical support and scientific basis, and the safety of the inland waters, ports and other complex production, resource utilization, navigation order, equipment maintenance is of great value, more important waterway transportation industry of our country in sustainable development of the green water in the process of economy has important theoretical value and practical significance.

Ship capacity calculation, traffic flow, time and space consumption, port and channel, ship behavior characteristics

Key words: ship capacity calculation, traffic flow, time and space consumption, port and channel, ship behavior characteristics

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景及目的意义 1

1.1.1 研究背景 1

1.1.2 研究目的和意义 2

1.2 国内外研究现状 2

1.2.1 航道通过能力研究现状分析 2

1.2.2 船舶行为特征研究现状分析 3

1.2.3 路网容量研究现状分析 3

1.3 研究内容及关键问题 3

1.3.1 研究内容 3

1.3.2 关键问题 4

1.4 研究方法和技术路线 4

第2章 船舶通过能力研究概述 6

2.1 船舶通过能力定义 6

2.2 船舶通过能力分析 7

2.2.1 船舶通过能力模型定义 7

2.2.2 船舶通过能力模型计算 7

2.2.3 船舶通过能力研究局限 9

2.3 船舶通过能力影响因素分析 9

2.3.1 船舶自身因素 9

2.3.2 自然条件因素 10

2.3.3 航行水域条件因素 11

2.3.4 交通组织规则因素 12

2.3.5 其他因素 13

2.4 本章小结 14

第3章 基于时空消耗理论的繁忙水域船舶通过能力计算 15

3.1 时空消耗理论 15

3.2 繁忙水域时空资源 17

3.2.1 繁忙水域时间资源分析 17

3.2.2 繁忙水域空间资源分析 18

3.3 繁忙水域船舶模型 19

3.3.1 繁忙水域常规船舶模型 19

3.3.2 繁忙水域特殊船舶模型 21

3.4 繁忙水域交通流结构特征 22

3.4.1 结构特征定义 22

3.4.2 交通流结构特征构成 22

3.4.3 交通流结构特征影响分布 25

3.5 基于时空消耗理论的繁忙水域船舶通过能力计算模型的构建 28

3.5.1 船舶通过能力计算模型的构建 28

3.5.2 计算模型的优化 29

3.6 本章小结 29

第4章 不同复杂场景下模型的检验和应用 30

4.1 内河 30

4.2 港口 30

4.3 桥区 31

4.4 库区 32

第5章 结论与展望 34

5.1 研究结论 34

5.2 创新之处 34

5.3 未来展望 34

参考文献 36

致谢 37

1. 绪论

1.1 研究背景及目的意义

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