论文总字数：19216字

摘 要

随着全球逐渐升温,我们家园的生态环境越来越差,各国已经逐次关注到了一个焦点问题:二氧化碳的过度排放。而我国作为当今世界上最重要的发展中国家之一,也是全球碳排放量严重超标的国家,如何妥善且有效的处理碳排放与能源消耗、经济增长的问题就不得不提上日程。由于气体排放导致的全球温室效应中,二氧化碳的贡献占比高达60%。关于如何控制碳排放,国际上召开了多次会议,其中在"哥本哈根会议"上指出我国对全球变暖造成的恶劣影响。但是改革开放后，我国经济想要高速发展的前提，便必然是建立在高耗能、重污染的能源消费模式下,同时我国这种贫油、少气、多煤的不合理架构也是问题的源头之一。综合以上情况，我国二氧化碳的超标排放也不难理解。而从实际出发考量,发展经济仍然是我国目前的首要任务,但又为了避免污染环境,故可持续发展道路显然是我国当下的首先方案。那如何在恶劣的环境下，协调这三者之间的关系便是重中之重。

关键字：能源消耗 经济增长 二氧化碳排放 VAR

A study on the relationship among energy consumption, economic growth and carbon emission in China

Abstract

With the global warming and the worsening of the global environment, countries have gradually paid attention to a focus problem: excessive emission of carbon dioxide. As one of the most important developing countries in the world, China is also a country that has seriously exceeded the global carbon emissions. How to properly and effectively deal with the problems of carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth has to be put on the agenda. Carbon dioxide accounts for up to 60% of the global greenhouse effect caused by gas emissions. On how to control carbon emissions, many international conferences have been held, in which the "Copenhagen Conference" pointed out China's adverse impact on global warming. Because the high-speed development of our country at that time must be based on the mode of high consumption, high emission and high pollution, and the energy structure with poor oil, less gas and more coal in our country is also very unreasonable. As a result, China's carbon dioxide emissions have soared and become the world's largest emitter. Considering from the reality, the development of economy is still the primary task of our country at present, but in order to avoid environmental pollution, so the sustainable development is obviously the first plan of our country at present. How to deal with the relationship among carbon emission, energy consumption and economic growth is the key to the problem.

Key Words：Energy consumption；Economic growth；Carbon dioxide emissions；VAR

目 录

摘要…………………………………………………………………………………Ⅰ

ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………Ⅱ

第一章 引言…………………………………………………………………………1

1.1 研究目的和意义……………………………………………………………1

1.2 国内外文献综述……………………………………………………………1

1.3 研究方法……………………………………………………………………4

1.3.1 文献综述法…………………………………………………………4

1.3.2 描述性统计分析法…………………………………………………4

1.3.3 计量分析法…………………………………………………………4

第二章 我国能源消费、经济增长与二氧化碳排放现状分析………………………5

2.1 我国能源消费现状分析……………………………………………………5

2.2 我国经济发展现状分析……………………………………………………5

2.3 我国二氧化碳排放现状分析………………………………………………6

2.4 能源消费、经济增长与二氧化碳排放综合描述…………………………7

第三章 基于多元线性回归模型的实证分析………………………………………9

3.1 数据选取……………………………………………………………………9

3.2 模型设定……………………………………………………………………9

3.3多元线性回归分析…………………………………………………………9

3.3.1 平稳性检验…………………………………………………………9

3.3.2 协整检验…………………………………………………………10

3.3.3 参数估计…………………………………………………………10

3.3.4 格兰杰因果检验…………………………………………………11

3.4 多元线回归模型存在的问题……………………………………………11

第四章 基于VAR模型的实证分析………………………………………………12

4.1 VAR模型…………………………………………………………………12

4.2 数据选取与预处理………………………………………………………12

4.3 VAR模型实证分析………………………………………………………12

4.3.1 模型的建立………………………………………………………12

4.3.2 模型稳定性检验…………………………………………………13

4.3.3 协整检验…………………………………………………………14

4.3.4 脉冲响应函数……………………………………………………15

4.3.5 方差分解分析……………………………………………………16

第五章 分析结论及政策建议………………………………………………………18

5.1 分析结论…………………………………………………………………18

5.2 政策建议…………………………………………………………………19

参考文献……………………………………………………………………………21

致谢…………………………………………………………………………………22

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