摘 要

2016年10月14日，《石化和化学工业发展规划（2016-2020年）》的发布是工信部时刻紧跟《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》和《中国制造2025》这两个方向政策最直接的表现。工信部发布这个规划旨在指导整个行业持续健康发展，指导石化和化学工业由由原来的数量大变成能力技术强。从《规划》中我们不难发现在“十二五”期间我国化工行业得到了充分的发展，综合实力明显增强，直接使得我国成功坐上世界第一化学品生产国的宝座。综合实力的增强主要表现在五个方面，首先对核心产品的质量保证有了提高；其次对行业内部的结构性调整也在稳步进行着，并且深入到各个公司当中；然后，创新能力也得到了提高，各种新型化工产品也不断推出；与此同时，能耗也大大降低了，污染物排放量得到了控制；最后，在十二五期间我们完成了许多与国外厂家的合作，打开国外市场的同时也使自己的实力得到了增强。可是同时还面临着许多不足 1.结构性矛盾突出；2.行业推出新的产品的速度较慢；3.化工行业本身排放污染量较大，要紧跟国家政策压力较大；4.产业布局不尽合理。综合我国过去一段时间的发展中出现的问题，《规划》从五大发展原则出发，提出了“十三五”期间的五个方面的规划目标，它们分别是经济方面的发展方向、结构调整方向、科技创新引领发展的方向、绿色发展方向以及两化融合方向。《规划》指出“十三五”期间石化和化学工业增加值GARA将达到8%，到2020年销售利润率将提高至4.9%；传统化工产品生产产品能力相对过高问题将得到有效的解决，烯烃、芳烃等根本材料和化工新材料保障本领将明显进步，化工新材料保障水平将从63%提升至82%，环境友好型农药产量将提升到80%以上，新型肥料比重将提升到大概30%；将在重点范畴建成一批全行业乃至全国性质的创新平台并致力于突破一批重大枢纽共性技术和重大成套设备，创造出一批拥有成长性的新的经济增长点；并且在“十三五”结尾阶段要达成将污染消耗减少，达到节能减排的几个目标：将万元GDP的用水量减少23%，将万元GDP能源的消耗以及排放的二氧化碳量减少18%，将化学需氧量、氨氮排放量降低10%，排放的二氧化硫和氨氮化物的总量下降15%，至少减少30%挥发性有机物的排放量；除此之外还要在石化、煤化工、轮胎、化肥等范畴将建成一批智能石化工厂和数字石化车间，建成智能工园区以及石化化工行业产业的互联网试点。

本文挑选了我国部分化工类上市公司做为研究对象，利用多元统计分析的方法来定量分析化工类上市公司的核心竞争力。利用SAS软件对化工类上市公司不同细分行业的上市公司的各项指标进行分析，运用统计分析中的主成分分析、因子分析等方法得出各种指标数据对于上市公司收益情况的影响，从而筛选出对化工类上市公司核心竞争力有主要影响力的指标，为这类公司今后的投资发展决策提供依据。

在应用多元统计分析原理的基础上，利用SAS软件对12个化工类上市公司2016-2017年报所发布的财务数据进行分析，通过对企业用其资产偿还长期债务以及短期债务的能力、资产负债管理能力、企业获取利润能力、企业扩展经营能力和现金流量这五个方面的指标进行实证分析，得出化工类上市公司为了提升核心竞争力应该重点注意的方向。

关键词：核心竞争力 化工类上市公司 主成分分析 SAS软件

Discussion on Competitiveness of Chinese Chemical Listed Companies Based on Multivariate Statistical Analysis

Abstract

In October 14, 2016, the development plan of petrochemical and chemical industry (2016-2020 years) was published. It is the most direct manifestation that the Ministry of industry and information closely follows the thirteenth five year plan of People's Republic of China's national economy and social development and the "China made 2025".The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released this plan to guide the continuous and healthy development of the entire industry, and guide the petrochemical and chemical industries from being transformed from large quantities to capable technologies.From the "planning" we can easily find that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" , China's chemical industry has been fully developed, and its comprehensive strength has obviously increased, which has directly enabled China to sit on the throne of the world's first chemical producer.The enhancement of comprehensive strength is mainly reflected in five aspects.Firstly, the quality assurance of core products has been improved; secondly, the structural adjustment in the industry is also steadily progressing, and it has penetrated into each company;then, the ability to innovate has also been improved, and various new chemical products have been introduced;at the same time, energy consumption has also been greatly reduced, and pollutant emissions have been controlled; finally, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, we completed a lot of cooperation with foreign manufacturers and opened up foreign markets while also strengthening our own strength.However, it also faces many shortcomings 1. The structural contradictions are prominent; 2. The pace of industrial innovation is slow; 3. The chemical industry emits a relatively large amount of pollution, but it is necessary to keep up with national policies so the pressure is greater; 4. The industrial layout is not reasonable .Taking the problems that have emerged in the past period of development in China into account,the plan, based on the five principles of development, puts forward the planning goals for the five aspects of the "13th Five-Year" period which are the direction of economic development, the direction of structural adjustment, the direction of innovation driving, the direction of green development and the direction of the two integration."Planning" pointed out that during "13th Five-Year Plan" , the added value of GARA for the petrochemical and chemical industries will reach 8%, and the sales margin will increase to 4.9% by 2020;The overcapacity problem of traditional chemical products will be effectively solved,The protection of olefins, aromatics and other fundamental materials and new chemical materials will significantly improve,the level of new chemical materials will increase from 63% to 82%, and the production of environmentally friendly pesticides will increase to more than 80%, the proportion of new fertilizer will increase to about 30%;A number of industry-wide and even nation-wide innovation platforms will be established in key areas and we will dedicate to breaking through a number of key common technologies and major equipment sets to create a number of new economic growth points with growth potential;And at the end of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, we must achieve several goals to reduce pollution consumption and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction;The water consumption of the million yuan GDP is reduced by 23%, the consumption of GDP energy and the carbon dioxide emissions are reduced by 18%. The emission of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen is reduced by 10%, the total amount of sulfur dioxide and ammonia nitrogen is reduced by 15%, and at least 30% volatile organic compounds are reduced;In addition, a number of smart petrochemical plants and digital petrochemical plants will be built in the fields of petrochemicals, coal chemicals, tires, and chemical fertilizers,and we will also build an internet pilot for smart industrial parks and petrochemical chemical industries.

In this paper, some listed companies of chemical industry in China are used as the research object, and the method of multivariate statistical analysis is used to analyze the core competitiveness of the listed companies of chemical industry.The SAS software is used to analyze the indexes of Listed Companies in different segments of the listed companies of chemical industry,by using the methods of principal component analysis and factor analysis in statistical analysis, the influence of various index data on the earnings of listed companies is obtained, thus screening out the main influence index of the core competitiveness of the chemical listed companies, and providing the basis for the decision making for the future investment development of these companies.

On the basis of applying the principle of multivariate statistical analysis,we use The SAS software to analyze the financial data issued by the 2016 annual report of 12 listed companies of chemical industry, and through the empirical analysis of the five aspects of debt paying ability, asset liability management ability, profitability, development ability and cash flow,and draw the direction that chemical listed companies should pay attention to in order to enhance their core competitiveness.

Key Words: Core competitiveness;Chemical listed companies;Principal component analysis;SAS software

目录

第一章 引言 1

1.1 研究目的与意义 1