摘 要

当代社会，人民生活水平正在日益提高，经济快速发展，人们对于住房也有着越来越多的要求。在这种背景下，住房价格的快速上涨，使得“住房难”成为社会的一大焦点。当前最好的解决方法就是根据住房需求来提供供给。因此，住房需求的研究就有着十分急迫的现实意义。需求是一种主观的意愿，会受到多种因素的影响，而人作为住房的消费者，人口的变化相对于住房需求来说具有相对稳定的特点。人口结构是人口发展的基础，同时也是社会经济发展的条件；既是决定未来人口发展势态和影响经济发展的重要因素，又是当前社会经济的变化反映。因此，从人口结构变化的角度研究住房需求成为了最基本的研究视角，并可根据人口结构变化对住房需求产生的影响，为住房市场的发展提供建设性的参考。

文章在参考文献的基础上，开始时对住房需求和人口结构转变的关系进行了理论上的分析。然后，运用了近15年中国人口数据，分析人口结构变化对住房需求的影响。接下来在对人口因素的进一步预测的基础上，对未来住房需求的数量进行预测。最后，在分析和预测的结果上，得到最终的结论，并在结论的基础上提出建设性的建议。

文章理论和研究两个角度来分析人口结构转变和住房需求的关系，在文章的后面对未来15年的住房需求数量进行了预测。文章的特点主要表现在：第一，研究的视角。前辈们关于人口结构的角度，主要是人口的家庭结构、人口的城乡结构或人口的年龄结构。本文从人口结构的大范围出发——人口社会结构、人口地域结构和人口自然结构三个方面来研究人口结构转变和住房需求的关系，主要用到人口的性别结构、年龄结构、家庭结构、婚姻结构、教育结构、职业和行业结构、城乡结构等多个方面。第二，研究的方法。之前的学者关于人口结构转变和住房需求关系的研究，通常只进行理论文字的分析，没有涉及到很多的数据分析。文章使用了中国人口结构中相关结构近15年来的数据对住房需求的影响进行了定量分析。第三，研究的内容。之前的学者大多只研究两者的关系，并没有进一步对未来人口结构转变和住房需求的关系进行预测，文章在数据分析和人口相关结构预测的基础上，也对未来15年住房需求的数量进行了预测。第四，研究的结果。文章经过研究发现中国人口老龄化对住房需求有正向的影响，少儿抚养比对住房需求有负向的影响。反应了当前中国人口老龄化和少儿抚养对住房需求的影响。

关键词：人口结构；住房需求；自然结构；社会结构；地域结构；预测

Abstract

Nowadays, with the rapid development of economy, improvement of people's living level, the demand for housing will have more and more requirements. In this context, the rapid rise in housing prices, making the "housing difficult" has become a major focus of the society. The best method is to solve the housing needs to provide supply. Therefore, it is very important to study the housing demand. The demand is a kind of subjective intention, will be affected by many factors, and as the housing consumers, the change of population relative to the housing demand has the characteristics of relatively stable. Population structure is the foundation of population development, but also the social and economic development the condition is determined; the future population development trend and an important factor affecting economic development, but also reflects the change of social economy. Therefore, from the aspect ofthe population structures’ change. The housing demand has become the most basic research perspective, and can be based on the impact of changes in the population structure of housing demand, to provide constructive reference for the development of the housing market.

The in reference to the basis of domestic and foreign literature, first of all to the relationship between the structure of population and housing demand were theoretical analysis. Next, we will use the population data in recent 15 years, to analysis the impact of demographic changes on housing demand. Then in the further prediction of population factors based, housing demand in the future is predicted. Finally, according to the research analysis and prediction results, it is concluded that the final conclusions of the paper, and put forward the relevant policy recommendations.

This paper confirmed from two angles of theory and analysis of the impact of population structure on the housing demand, and the future housing demand related prediction. Its characteristic is mainly manifested in the following aspects: firstly, research methods. The past research of population structure changes on housing demand, often only theoretical analysis, and this paper the use of the influence of data structure in recent 15 years Chinese population structure of the housing demand was quantitatively analyzed. Secondly, research perspective. Previous studies on the population structure, mainly related to the age structure of the population and family structure of population or population, urban and rural structure. From the broad content of population structure: the natural population structure, population structure and regional population structure in three aspects to study the population structure effect on housing demand, related to the sex structure of population structure, age structure Comparison based on results in the influence of structure, education structure, family structure, marriage, occupation and industry structure, urban and rural structure and other aspects. Thirdly, article content. In the past population structure of housing demand research, often only study the related effect, and no further in the future demographic changes on housing demand forecasting, this paper analysis and population structure prediction, but also for the future housing demand changes were predicted. Fourth, paper results. The study found that China's population aging on housing demand has a positive effect, the children raise housing demand negative effect. The reaction of the current China's population aging and the children reared on housing demand.

Key Words: population structure; housing demand; natural structure; social structure; regional structure; prediction