论文总字数：25665字

摘 要

本文首先介绍了电力行业碳减排的协同效益的研究背景及国内外研究现状，并简单介绍了IGCC、NGCC、SC、USC、CCS等目前广泛应用的碳减排技术；然后通过情景设计模拟了不同装机容量的化石燃料电厂利用不同碳减排技术后的二氧化碳排放量和与基准情景相比的减排量；后计算其同源污染物（SO₂、NO_x和PM_2.5）的排放量和与基准情景相比的减排量，并利用电力行业污染物价值标准计算每种情景下的协同效益；最后通过水晶球软件蒙特卡罗模拟分析其不确定性并得出结论。结果表明，化石燃料电厂利用不同碳减排技术均可以带来巨大的协同效益。利用IGCC技术在同等装机容量的情况下可带来最大的协同效益，利用NGCC技术可带来第二大的协同效益，对协同效益量化后均可达到百亿级别。利用SC技术和USC技术带来的协同效益量化后也可达到亿元级。利用CCS技术进行末端治理，相比于单独利用IGCC、NGCC、SC、USC等碳减排技术可带来更大的协同效益。同时，在利用相同碳减排技术的情况下，大装机容量机组可带来更大的协同效益。

关键词：电力行业 碳减排 协同效益

Research on the co-benefits of carbon emission reduction in power plants

Abstract

In this paper, the background information and research status at home and abroad on synergies of carbon-emissions reduction in electric-power industry were firstly presented and meanwhile, some widely used carbon-emissions reduction technologies such as IGCC, NGCC, SC, USC and CCS were briefly introduced. Secondly, through scenario design, the carbon dioxide emissions from different carbon emission reduction technologies and the emission reduction compared with the baseline scenario of fossil fuel power plants with different installed capacity were simulated; then the emissions of the same source pollutants (such as SO₂, NO_X and PM_2.5) and the emission reduction compared with the baseline scenario were calculated. Finally, the uncertainty was analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation and the conclusions were drawn. According to the results, the various kinds of carbon emission reduction technologies adopted could all bring enormous synergistic benefits to fossil fuel power plants. Among them, the IGCC technology brought the greatest co-benefits under the same installed capacity, and the NGCC technology the second largest, all of which could reach the level of 10 billion after quantifying. The co-benefits brought by SC and USC technologies could also reach the level of 100 million. Compared with using IGCC, NGCC, SC, USC and other carbon emission reduction technologies separately, the usage of CCS technology for end-of-pipe treatment could bring more synergistic benefits. At the same time, the units with large installed capacity could bring greater synergistic benefits when using the same carbon emission reduction technology.

Key Words: power plants; carbon emission reduction; co-benefits

目 录

摘 要 I

Abstract II

第一章 绪论 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 研究现状 2

1.3 研究内容 3

第二章 电力行业碳减排技术 5

2.1 电力行业碳减排技术综述 5

2.2 整体煤气化联合循环（IGCC） 5

2.3 天然气联合循环（NGCC） 6

2.4 超临界（SC）和超超临界（USC）机组 7

2.5 末端治理技术 7

第三章 减排量计算 9

3.1 情景设计 9

3.2 排放量和减排量的计算模型 9

3.3 数据来源 10

3.4 计算结果 12

3.4.1 CO₂排放量及减排量 12

3.4.2 SO₂排放量及减排量 13

3.4.3 NO_x排放量及减排量 14

3.4.4 PM_2.5排放量及减排量 15

第四章 协同效益 16

4.1 协同效益 16

4.2 协同效益计算模型 16

4.3 电力行业污染物环境价值标准 16

4.3 计算结果 17

第五章 不确定性分析 19

5.1 不确定分析的必要性 19

5.2 蒙特卡罗模拟与水晶球软件 19

5.3 计算结果 19

第六章 结论与展望 24

6.1 结论 24

6.2 不足与展望 24

参考文献 26

致谢 28

图目录

图1-1 研究技术路线图 4

图2-1 IGCC技术工艺流程图 6

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