摘 要

目前世界经济发展迅速，经济全球化和区域经济一体化事目前经济发展两个主要特征。截至2013年，全球已有一千多个自由贸易区，其中发达国家设立的自由贸易区所占的比例是30%;发展中国家设立的自由贸易区数目超过了总数的一半。设立自由贸易区是实现经济全球化过程中的前奏，它在贸易与投资方面具有更加优惠的贸易安排，纷纷受到众多国家的重视。中国-东盟自由贸易区，是中国与新加坡、泰国、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、越南、文莱、老挝、缅甸、菲律宾、柬埔寨等11个国家共同组成与建设的。自贸区建成后，东盟和中国的贸易额占到世界总量的十分之一左右。广西是连接中国和东盟经济的重要桥梁，在建设中国--东盟自贸区中具有独特的地理位置优势和政策方面的优势。在目前经济发展迅速的大背景下，尤其是在建设中国--东盟自贸区的大背景下，广西需要正确制定经济社会发展方针，进一步完善发展蓝图，兼备国内发展和对外开放，把国家发展战略转化为提高广西对外开放度和加快发展的动力源泉，实现广西新经济的瞩目发展。

本文首先介绍广西的贸易方式、贸易商品结构、主要贸易伙伴、贸易主体，以及广西利用外资的情况。其次分析在中国——东盟自贸区建立下的背景下，广西进出口贸易面临的机遇与挑战。在了解广西贸易的现状的基础上，分析了广西贸易竞争力指数，并建立了贸易引力模型，应用贸易引力模型2010年——2016年广西出口贸易进行实证分析，结果显示广西实际利用东盟国家的投资、东盟国家的国民经济总值、东盟国家的贸易竞争力均对广西的出口贸易有促进作用。

最后本文根据广西进出口贸易现状以及针对计量结果提出借助中国——东盟自贸区促进广西贸易的建议。

本文特色在于：第一，从广西的贸易结构来分析广西的贸易现状；第二，通过分析在自贸区建立的背景下广西遇到的机遇与挑战，并通过建立计量模型得出影响广西出口的因素，从而得出相应的政策和建议。

关键词：东盟自贸区； 进出口 ；影响；对策

Abstract

At present, the world economy is developing rapidly, and economic globalization and regional economic integration are two main characteristics of economic development at present. As of 2013, there were more than 1000 free trade zones in the world, of which 30% of the free trade zones established by developed countries; the number of free trade zones established by developing countries exceeded half of the total. The establishment of a free trade area is a prelude to the realization of economic globalization. It has a more favorable trade arrangement in trade and investment, and has been paid much attention by many countries.China ASEAN Free Trade Area is made up of 11 countries, such as Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei, Laos, Burma, Philippines, Kampuchea and other countries. After the completion of the FTA, the volume of trade between ASEAN and China accounts for about 1/10 of the world's total. Guangxi is an important bridge connecting China and ASEAN economies, and has unique geographical advantages and policy advantages in the construction of China ASEAN Free Trade Area. Under the background of rapid economic development, especially in the context of building China ASEAN Free Trade Area, Guangxi needs to correctly formulate the policy of economic and social development, further improve the blueprint for development, both domestic and external opening, and transform the national development strategy into the initiative to raise Guangxi's opening to the outside world and accelerate its development. Liyuan spring has realized the development of Guangxi's new economy.

This article first introduces Guangxi's trade mode, trade commodity structure, main trading partners, trade subjects, and Guangxi's utilization of foreign capital. Secondly, it analyzes the opportunities and challenges faced by Guangxi's import and export trade under the background of the establishment of China ASEAN Free Trade Area. On the basis of understanding the current situation of Guangxi trade, this paper analyzes the trade competitiveness index of Guangxi, establishes a model of trade gravitation, and applies the model of trade gravitation in 2010 to 2016 to carry out an empirical analysis of Guangxi's export trade. The results show that Guangxi's investment in ASEAN countries, the national economic value of ASEAN countries, ASEAN countries, and ASEAN countries are actually used. The trade competitiveness of the two countries has a positive effect on Guangxi's export trade.

Finally, based on the current situation of Guangxi's import and export trade and the measurement results, the paper puts forward suggestions to promote Guangxi's trade with the help of China ASEAN Free Trade Area.

The characteristics of this article are: first, from the trade structure of Guangxi to analyze the trade status of Guangxi; second, through the analysis of the opportunities and challenges encountered by Guangxi in the context of the establishment of the free trade area, and through the establishment of a measurement model to determine the factors affecting the export of Guangxi, so as to draw the corresponding policies and suggestions.

Key Words :ASEAN Free Trade Area; import and export; impact; Countermeasures

目 录

摘 要 3

Abstract 4

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 论文写作的目的及意义 1

1.2相关文献综述 1

第2章 相关理论研究 2

2.1自由贸易区的相关概念及相关理论 2

2.1.1自由贸易区的相关概念 2

2.1.2 自由贸易区相关理论 3

2.2贸易引力模型的相关概念及相关理论 3

2.2.1贸易引力模型的相关概念 3

2.2.2贸易引力模型的相关理论 4

第3章 东盟自贸区建立以后，广西贸易概况 4

3.1广西贸易结构分析 4

3.1.1广西贸易方式分析 4

3.1.2广西贸易商品结构分析 6

3.1.3广西贸易主体分析 7