摘 要

安全是航运界永恒的主题。内河旅游客运主要集中在长江和漓江水域，随着人们生活水平的提高，内河客运量持续增长。与海上邮轮相比，内河旅游船具有吃水浅，上层重心高的特点，极易发生安全事故。“东方之星”沉船事故的发生，带来了重大社会和经济损失，对内河旅游业的发展影响巨大，因而各级政府及相关管理部门对水上旅游安全的要求越来越高。内河旅游船通航风险的研究将有助于降低航运事故发生率及事故损失，具有很大的现实意义。

内河旅游船是海事监管的重点，是“四客一危”之一，也是重点。但是内河监管法规、制度标准与海上邮轮差别较大，而且内河旅游船大多为改造船，因此要对其通航风险进行准确评价，难度较大。

本文在分析国内外相关领域研究的基础上，从我国内河旅游船运营现状出发，找出影响其通航安全的影响因素，建立了包含4个一级评价指标和12个二级评价指标的风险评价指标体系，并依此构建了一套切实可行的风险评价模型。运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价等方法对内河旅游船通航的风险状况进行评价。

在实践进行方面，以“东方之星”旅游船翻沉事故为例，采用专家咨询和发放问卷等形式，确立了该船航行中风险源，并对影响其安全的风险因素进行分析。应用所建评价模型，实现了对“东方之星”号通航安全状况的研究和评价，得到了比较合理的评价结果，也进一步验证了所建模型的实用性和准确性。最后，根据评价结果，结合旅游船发展实际，为相关企业和地方政府等海事监管部门改善旅游船航道条件以及在安全管理与控制方面，提供科学的参考和建议。

关键词：内河旅游船；通航风险；模糊综合评价

Abstract

Safety is the eternal theme of the shipping industry. Inland river passenger transport mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River and Lijiang waters. . With the improvement of people's living standards, the inland passenger capacity continues to increase. Compared with the cruise ships at sea, the inland river cruise ships have the characteristics of shallow draught and high center of gravity at the upper levels, and are prone to safety accidents."Oriental Star" shipwreck occurred, which brought significant social and economic losses. There had a huge impact on the development of the river tourism industry, and thus the water travel safety requriements of governments with relevant management departments are getting higher and higher. The research on the navigation risk of inland river cruise ship will help to reduce the incidence of shipping accidents and the loss of accidents, which is of great practical significance.

Inland river cruise ship is the focus of maritime supervision, is one of the "four passengers and one danger",and is also the focus. However, inland waterway supervision regulations and system standards are quite different from those of cruise ships at sea, and most inland river cruise ships are converted ships, so it is difficult to evaluate their navigation risks accurately.

Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign related fields, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of navigation safety from the present situation of China's inland river cruise ship, and establishes the risk evaluation including four first-level evaluation indexes and 12 secondary evaluation indexes Index system, and thus build a set of practical risk assessment model. AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are used to evaluate the risk of navigation of inland river cruise ships.

In the aspect of practice, the author analyzes the risk factors of the ship's sailing and analyzes the risk factors that affect the safety of the cruise ship, taking the expert consultation and issuing the questionnaire as an example. Based on the evaluation model, the research and evaluation of the navigation condition of "Oriental Star" are realized, and the reasonable evaluation result is obtained, and the practicability and accuracy of the model are further verified. Finally, according to the evaluation results, combined with the actual development of tourism vessels, for the relevant enterprises and local governments and other maritime regulatory authorities to improve the conditions of the cruise ship and safety management and control, to provide scientific reference and recommendations.

Key words: river cruise ship; navigation risk; fuzzy comprehensive evaluatio

目 录

第1章 绪论 1

1.1 研究目的及意义 1

1.2国内外研究现状 1

1.3 论文的研究内容、方法及技术路线 2

1.3.1 研究内容 2

1.3.2研究方法及技术路线 3

第2章 内河旅游船通航安全影响分析 5

2.1内河旅游船通航安全现状 5

2.1.1我国旅游船运营现状 5

2.1.2内河旅游船通航安全现状 5

2.2内河旅游船通航风险影响因素分析 6

2.2.1人的因素 6

2.2.2船舶因素 6

2.2.3环境因素 7

2.2.4管理因素 7

2.3 风险评价方法的比选 7

2.3.1 综合评价方法概述 7

2.3.2 评价方法的确定 8

第3章 内河旅游船通航风险评价指标体系的建立 10

3.1 评价指标的构建原则 10

3. 2关键性指标的筛选 10

3.3 评价指标体系的建立 13

第4章 内河旅游船通航风险评价模型的建立 15

4.1内河旅游船通航风险评价指标因素集与判断集的确定 15

4.1.1风险因素集的建立 15

4.1.2指标评价集的建立 15

4.2隶属度函数的确定方法 16

4.3评价指标的权重 16

4.3.1指标权重的确定方法 16

4.3.2指标权重集计算 18

4.4评价模型的建立 22

4.4.1模糊算子的选择 22

4.4.2构建评价模型 22

第5章 实证研究 25

5.1 “东方之星”号旅游船翻沉事故分析 25

5.2 “东方之星”通航风险综合评价 26

5.2.1构建“东方之星”旅游船安全评价因素集 26

5.2.2确定评价指标的隶属度 26

5.2.3指标权重表 28

5.2.4模糊综合评价计算 29

5.2.5反模糊化计算 30

5.2.6结果分析 30

5.3内河旅游船安全管理建议 31

第6章 结论和展望 33

6.1结论 33

6.2展望 33

参考文献 34

附录A 35

附录B 37

致谢 38

第1章 绪论

1.1 研究目的及意义

我国河流流域面积广阔，截至到2016年年底，我国外流河、内陆河流域的总面积已达9506678平方公里，其中外流河占比64.70%，流域面积为6150927平方公里，长江所占流域面积最大，为1782715平方公里。长江、黑龙江、珠江、京杭大运河、淮河及其支流水系，通航里程已达11万公里，内河旅游船的发展条件得天独厚。随着我国经济水平的稳步提升，人民的生活水平也有了不断提高，为了满足人们消费休闲、追求独特体验的要求，内河旅游船行业提供了一种不错的选择。

内河旅游条件较优越的区域集中在长江和漓江水域，其中长江旅游船仍然占据着我国内河旅游船的绝对主体。为了满足中外游客旅游、娱乐、观光、休闲的旅游需求，我国旅游船纷纷升级换代，不断趋向于高档型、豪华型、多功能和大型化。