摘 要

创业板自开市以来，每年都有90%左右的公司进行现金股利分配，而此分配比率与主板市场存在明显差异。现金股利政策是公司股东获取回报的重要途径，也是公司投资及融资决策的基础。自国内外学者对现金股利政策研究以来，股权结构的重要性就被屡屡提及。在我国特殊的体制背景下，创业板上市公司的股权结构与主板上市公司也并不相似，其普遍呈现出集中度较高、股权制衡能力差、管理层持股比例偏高等特点。目前大多数文献都是将A股上市公司作为整体样本研究股权结构与现金股利政策的关系，而基于A股市场不同板块的差异性，本文以创业板上市公司为对象进行股权结构与现金股利政策关系的实证研究是十分必要的，且研究结果能够在一定程度上解释创业板市场的现金股利分配现象。

本文从股权结构的质与量两个角度出发来研究其对创业板上市公司现金股利分配倾向、水平的影响，主要采用理论结合实证的分析方法。在对国内外研究现状、创业板现金股利分配以及股权结构特征和现金股利理论进行梳理分析的基础上，提出研究假设并选取一系列的解释变量及控制变量，然后依此对2009年至2015年的创业板上市公司研究样本采用Logit回归和多元回归等分析方法，实证检验股权结构与现金股利政策之间的关系。

研究结果表明，股权集中度和现金股利分配倾向、水平之间均存在显著的正相关关系；股权制衡度只对现金股利分配倾向有显著的正面影响；管理层持股比例与现金股利分配倾向之间存在“U”形关系，然而其对现金股利分配水平无显著影响；机构投资者持股比例对现金股利分配倾向无显著影响，但是其和现金股利分配水平的关系呈现为“U”形结构；限售股比例对现金股利分配倾向、水平均无显著影响。本文最后针对研究结论提出了相关的政策建议，以期能进一步保护中小股东的合法权益并引导创业板上市公司健康持续发展。

本文的创新之处在于：第一，专门以创业板上市公司为研究对象，且所选取的数据样本量较为充分；第二，建立包含解释变量二次项的Logit以及多元非线性回归模型，对创业板上市公司的股权结构与现金股利政策之间的非线性关系进行了研究。

关键词：创业板上市公司；股权结构；现金股利政策；Logit回归

Abstract

Since the opening of the GEM, each year about 90% of the company's cash dividend distribution, and this distribution ratio is significantly different from that of the main board Market. Cash dividend policy is an important way for shareholders to obtain returns, and it is the basis for corporate investment and financing decisions. Since the domestic and foreign scholars have researched cash dividend policy, the importance of ownership structure has been repeatedly mentioned. In the context of China's special system, the ownership structure of listed companies on the GEM is not similar to that of main board listed companies, and its general manifestation is characterized by higher concentration, poor balance of equity and the management of high holdings. At present, most of the literature treats A-share listed companies as a whole sample to study the relationship between ownership structure and cash dividend policy, and based on the differences between the different sectors of the A-share market, the GEM listed companies as the object of research related to ownership structure and cash dividend policy is very necessary, and research the results can also explain the cash dividend distribution of the GEM market phenomenon to a certain extent.

From the perspective of the quality and quantity of the ownership structure, this paper studies the impact of the distribution of cash dividends on the GEM listed companies, it mainly adopts the method of combining theory with empirical analysis. Based on the status of the research, the analysis of the characteristics of listed companies on the GEM and the theory of cash dividend, this paper selects a series of explanatory variables and control variables and puts forward the hypothesis, then uses Logit regression and multiple regression analysis on the sample of the listed companies on GEM from 2009 to 2015, and tests the relationship between the ownership structure and cash dividend policy.

The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between the concentration of ownership and cash dividend distribution tendency and level, and the balance of equity has only a positive effect on the distribution tendency of cash dividend. There is a "U" relationship between the proportion of management shares and cash dividend distribution tendency, but there is no significant effect on the cash dividend distribution level. The proportion of institutional investors' shareholding has no significant effect on the cash dividend distribution tendency, but its relationship with cash dividend distribution level is a U-shaped structure. The proportion of restricted shares has no significant impact on the cash dividend distribution tendency and level. At the end of this paper, the relevant policy recommendations are put forward in order to further protect the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium shareholders and guide the healthy and sustainable development of the listed companies on GEM.

The innovation of this paper lies in: First, it is devoted to the listed companies on GEM as the research object, and the selected data samples are more abundant.; Secondly, the Logit and the multiple nonlinear regression model which contains the quadratic term of the explanatory variables are established to study the nonlinear relationship between the ownership structure and the cash dividend policy of the listed companies on GEM.

Key Words: Listed Companies on GEM; Ownership Structure; Cash Dividend Policy; Logit Regression

目 录

第1章 导论 1

1.1 研究目的和意义 1

1.1.1 研究背景和目的 1

1.1.2 研究意义 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 2

1.2.1 关于股权集中度与现金股利政策关系的研究 2

1.2.2 关于股权制衡度与现金股利政策关系的研究 4

1.2.3 关于管理层持股与现金股利政策关系的研究 4

1.2.4 关于机构投资者持股与现金股利政策关系的研究 5

1.2.5 关于股权流通性与现金股利政策关系的研究 6

1.2.6 国内外研究现状小结 6

1.3 研究内容与研究方法 7

1.3.1 研究内容 7

1.3.2 研究方法 7

第2章 创业板现金股利分配及股权结构特征 9

2.1 创业板上市公司现金股利分配特征 9

2.2 创业板上市公司股权结构特征 11

2.2.1 股权集中与制衡 11

2.2.2 股权类型与流通性 13

第3章 理论基础及研究假设 15

3.1 现金股利政策理论 15

3.1.1 “一鸟在手”理论 15

3.1.2 信号传递理论 15

3.1.3 代理成本理论 16

3.2 研究假设 16

3.2.1 股权集中度与现金股利政策 17

3.2.2 股权制衡度与现金股利政策 17

3.2.3 管理层持股与现金股利政策 18

3.2.4 机构投资者持股与现金股利政策 18

3.2.5 股权流通性与现金股利政策 19

第4章 实证研究设计 20

4.1 样本选取及数据来源 20

4.2 变量定义 20

4.2.1 被解释变量 20

4.2.2 解释变量 21

4.2.3 控制变量 22

4.3 模型设计 24

4.3.1 股权结构与现金股利分配倾向关系的实证模型设计 24

4.3.2 股权结构与现金股利分配水平关系的实证模型设计 24

第5章 实证分析及结论 26

5.1 股权结构与现金股利分配倾向的实证分析 26

5.1.1 描述性统计分析 26

5.1.2 相关性分析 28

5.1.3 Logit回归分析 30

5.2 股权结构与现金股利分配水平的实证分析 32